Data Race (NASDAQ: RACE) NEWS! 2 voice/data/fax: ONE LINE! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Data Race (NASDAQ: RACE) NEWS! 2 voice/data/fax: ONE LINE!

RACE 389.02

+1.5%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ignacio Mosqueira who wrote (25807)	11/20/1997 12:05:00 AM
From: drakes353	Read Replies (2) of 33268

Ignacio: Must you always be so pedantic? Sheesh. OK, now if the number of servers sold each quarter doubles going forward how in heck are we going to reach $43 million in sales 11.5 months from now? Let's say RACE can do $100k in BT sales this quarter, $200k the following Q, $400K the one after that and then $800k 4 Qs out. We'd still be talking only $1.5 million in sales over 12 months. Let's get crazy for a minute and assume RACE can do $1 million in BTsales this Q, then $2, $4, $8. We'd be talking $15 million in sales over the next 4 Qs. Assume the mux biz tosses in around a mil per quarter. Gets us up to $19 million in sales. Custom modems? Uh, well, if they are doing BT in those numbers I kind of doubt they will care about the "old news" modem biz it so we'll just leave it out. Let's also assume the "market" at that point is will to pay 2x revenues for RACE. $19 mil in sales x 2 = market cap of $38 million. Divide market cap of $38 million by shares then outstanding (5.5 currently and another say 1.0 for the convert shares for a total of 6.5 million) and I get a price per share of $5.84, at 4x revenue we'd have a price of $11.68 twelve months out. Say that starting from $1.0 in sales this Q is way, way too aggressive (I think even Barker would agree with me on that). Let's look for some middle ground. Assume a mil per Q in mux rev and that they do $500k, $1.0, $2.0, $4.0...that's $11.5 in revenue over twelve months. At a PSR of 2 that's a share price of $1.76, at a PSR of 4 we'd be talking $3.53 per stub. My "toylike" understanding of the product (hey at least I've never called it a "gadget" like that guy did during the CC) prevents me from seeing how RACE will be able to double BT sales sequentially over the next four quarters. I guess I lack your vision. drakes353

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