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Technology Stocks : Alcatel-Lucent (ALU)
ALU 3.4600.0%Mar 3 4:00 PM EST

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From: Sam11/23/2011 12:46:37 AM
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Alcatel Shares Extend Slide On Liquidity Worries

Alcatel-Lucent shares are taking a pounding amid ongoing concerns about the communications equipment company’s financial stability. ALU shares are down 16 cents, or 8.6%, to $1.70 this morning; the stock is off 45% since closing at $3.09 on October 14.

Goldman Sachs analyst Tim Boddy on Monday resumed coverage of the company on Monday with a Neutral rating; he cut his 2012 EPS forecast to 5 Euro cents a share, from 14 cents, and below the Street at 19 cents; for 2013, he goes to 18 Euro cents from 21 cents, below the Street at 24 cents. He writes that in a U.S. or global recession scenario in which the company suffered a 10% sales shortfall, Alcatel “could face liquidity pressures by 2013.” He adds that “liquidity uncertainty fully justifies ALU’s discounted valuation.”

This morning, Morgan Stanley analyst Francois Meunier issued a cautious note of his own on Alcatel following a talk by CFO Paul Tufano at a Morgan conference in Barcelona last week. “While management remained upbeat on 2012 … we believe that the telecom capex environment for Q4 remains very difficult and we cut our revenue forecasts for Q4 2011 by 10%,” he writes. “ALU needs to generate ~6% EBIT margins next year to be at breakeven free cash flow: With significant headwind on margins from declining CDMA revenues in 2012, we believe that this will be difficult to achieve. 2012 margin guidance will likely be provided at Q4 results. We remain cautious on 2012.” He maintains his Underweight rating on the stock.

forbes.com
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