C2, I was predicting Dow 16,000 way back in 1996/97 [see below]. But the Biotelecosmictechdot.com bust came along, followed by a decade of anti-AlQ/Iraq war, then the ruination of the I AM A MINDLESS ZOMBIE housing bubble and bust. It's now a decade later and a LOT of water has gone under the bridge. Osama is not planning another attack and Saddam will not be warring against Israel.
Big Ben took over from our great and estimable idol Uncle Al KBE and did quantitative easing on a scale never before seen in history [in absolute terms if not proportionately]. Those $trillions are sloshing around at 0% interest looking for somewhere to roost. I am not even paid a Happy Meal for the few US$ I hold. People holding US$ will gradually be forced to do something with them or have them diluted out of existence.
As Warren Buffett explained, a small pile of gold or a vast mountain of productive assets is a choice investors have. Gold has been bid up from $300 to $1727, a factor of 6, while the mountain of productive assets has been bid up in the same period from 11,000 to 12,000, a factor of nothing.
Contrary to popular mythology, Dow companies are making money as are the likes of Qualcomm, Microsoft, Apple and a LOT more besides. The price to earnings ratios are not too bad and certainly far better than the 0% earned on money and the 0% earned on gold.
We are in the midst of a melt-up. I think we will see the 16,000 at last and perhaps sooner rather than later. Maybe THIS February which would be 10 years to the day from the due date. I'm tempted to issue such a sooth.
It took another 12 years, but I finally got into biotechs [a Tonka Truckload of GNOM]. It has still not been a farewell to Globalstar or Qualcomm. Some things take a LOT of time. Back into GSAT at 38c last year and now at 85c so that's a work in progress. QCOM at $63 which is back towards Y2K levels.
Mqurice
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To: Joseph G. who wrote (1692)
11/7/1997 5:07:00 PMFrom: Maurice Winn of 1800 techstocks.com
To all who happen upon this old SI stream, which was a stream of a few happy days. A distant time, fondly remembered.
A farewell to Qualcomm and Globalstar. Hello to Biotechs - soon.
Maurice
[Dow 8000 by Feb 98, 16000 by Feb 2002] |
