Whither The Network Computer Now, Pundits
By Wayne Rash
One of the nice things about being pundits, as we in the technology press often believe we are, is that we like to think we can predict with impunity. So what if we said a year ago, for example, that the network computer would be the Next Big Thing? Even though it might turn out that we were as full of hot air as the Corel balloon that's floating outside of my Comdex hotel window, who's to know? Nobody's going to remember, right?
Well, some of us do remember. Although I was never one who went full bore on the future of the NC, I didn't expect it to disappear from the landscape in the way it has. On the other hand, the NetPC, which many expected to vanish without a trace, seems to be ubiquitous, but in a form that was completely unexpected. In other words, many of us pundits blew it.
About the only place you're likely to see an NC these days is in specialized applications, such as WebTV, or Oracle's Network Computer, which does essentially the same thing. The only other popular NC is IBM's version, which is mostly used to replace aging 3270 terminals.
The NetPC, Intel's effort to fight the NC with existing Windows-based applications on Intel platforms, isn't exactly showing up everywhere, either. What's happened instead is that the special functions of the NetPC are being integrated into standard business computing platforms at no significant price change. Management hardware and software, and capabilities like remote diagnostics or the ability to "wake up" a computer remotely and upgrade software are now simply included with computers aimed at the business market.
The result is that the computer you bought for your company, assuming you bought it in the past few months, is probably a NetPC in all ways except the name. Granted, it contains features not in the NetPC specification, but it retains all of the NetPC features.
So how could we be so wrong? I think the answer is that we-and many others in the industry-believed the claims of one segment of the industry uncritically; however, we didn't think about the direction of another as thoroughly as we should have.
For example, was it realistic to believe Oracle when it promised a $500 device that would replace the desktop computer? A fully functional business NC costs about twice that. Likewise, we didn't think about the fact that desktop computers continue to drop in price-that a complete, network-capable computer with a monitor costs less than an NC and does more.
What's embarrassing is that the trends were there for all to see. Though some of us expressed doubts about the impact on the network or about the lack of flexibility, we ignored the obvious. Maybe we'll do better next time.
Wayne Rash is senior technology editor at InternetWeek. He can be reached at wrash@mindspring.com or at wrash@cmp.com.
Copyright (c) 1997 CMP Media Inc. |
