Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector

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To: rich evans who wrote (905)	12/2/1997 4:53:00 PM
From: Asymmetric	Read Replies (3) of 2542

What the Right Hand Giveth, the Left Hand Taketh Away, Techs taking a horrendous beating today, with Altera leading the way down over 11 points to 40 and change, and Cabletron down over 7 to below 16 and Western Digital hitting a new yearly low. Interestingly, CS is one of the few networking companies to do the majority of their manufacturing in-house. My two cents: I think you need to overlay depressing macroeconomic concerns over the reports of continued good business and good demand coming from the assemblers and board companies. I would like to point out from this article in the South China Post at this url that these concerns are anything but minor: scmp.com The economic paradigm is changing with the debacle and collapse of the Far Eastern Tigers, and will trigger equivalent (but as yet undetermined/unproven) changes in the U.S. As I have posted over on the SCI Systems thread, the focus of my concentration (indeed along with most other investors) has shifted to the macroeconomic arena. I think the market is a relatively efficient(EMT), as well as a discounting, mechanism. Taking my ques from the market, my expectations are much lowered for next year despite the still good business conditions I see around me. The bottom line to me is the market is bluntly saying right now one needs to REDUCE not only one's exposure in the technology sector, which includes the ECM sector, but to stocks in general for 1998. Like Jesse Livermore once said, "Listen to what the Tape is telling you". To me the tape is saying rough times are ahead in the U.S. stock market.

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