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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 185.83+5.8%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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To: Jerome who wrote (387)12/31/2013 11:02:50 AM
From: Kirk ©1 Recommendation

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Jerome

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Fracking technology smashed the value of NG reserves plus crushed the expected returns on all deep water and other difficult NG drilling projects. My guess is we're seeing some overshoot on prices much as we see overshoot to the upside on stocks like Tesla, Twitter, etc.... These tend to regress to fair value in the long run. I just added to one of my worst positions this AM (also in NG) and have the nets out for even cheaper shares if they toss babies off the boat for final tax loss selling... maybe someone who sells at a market order will fill me... with shares selling at a small fraction of the cash in their bank.

I remember buying shares in something like Carrier Access in 2002 or 2003 for a fraction of the cash on the books. Sold shares later for 10 or 20 x gains. Same with Finisar in 2009... I think I paid a fraction of cash they held and they are up over 10x now... We might see the same with NG stocks if the global economy turns and people stop selling these losers to offset their gains in most other stocks.
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