Hi Mason,
I'll take the opposite side for the points you've presented.
1. An apparent lack of candor from management at Cymer and several stepper fabs about possible downsides, use of Komatsu lasers, and equipment failures/problems. They've lost a lot of faith.
Cymer has claimed 80% to 90% market share for DUV lasers. This, by definition, means that other lasers companies do in fact ship lasers into this market. The only point on which I can question management is after a conversation with a high-level Nikon executive, the Nikon person told Cymer that they had not shipped any steppers with a non-Cymer source. Clearly, Cymer was lied to on this point, if the other reports about Nikon are true.
As far as "problems" go, there is most likely widespread confusion between "problems" and maintenance. They published a report which states which subsystems require maintenance and on what intervals. I assume these maintenance issues were the primary concerns of the continuous improvement program implemented by Cymer last quarter.
cymer.com
Message 2892100
Message 2892971
They've lost a lot of faith.
I'm not sure what this means.
2. Inability of stepper manufacturers to manufacture steppers ("steppers" meaning all DUV photolith, including step-and-scan) as fast as announced, because of technical problems.
Cymer has mentioned on several occasions that making these tools is difficult. Common sense would also tell us this, but I'm pretty sure the learning curve applies to the manufacture of DUV tools, so this will work itself out. The difficulty in manufacturing DUV tools is the primary reason that demand for the tools outstrips supply at this point.
3. Increasing possibility of future push-outs of stepper orders in Asia due to inability to get financing.
There will most likely be some pushouts from Korean manufacturers because of the financing concerns. Fortunately for Cymer, there is a large imbalance in the supply/demand for DUV tools with demand exceeding supply. Korea represents less than 10% of the capital equipment market. Should Korea be unable to finance technology upgrades(DUV), there are US, European, and Taiwanese firms that can fill the gap.
Message 2920496
Message 2957945
4. Increasing competition from Komatsu, and as time goes by, increasing possibility of competition from Coherent.
Cymer expects competition. Goto said Komatsu will be able to manufacture 21 lasers Jan. to Mar. '98 which would mean current market shares will at least hold true through this time period. Also, it will be interesting to see how competition responds to Cymer's pulse-stretched and multi-KHz technology initiatives. Should Cymer ship such lasers in a timely fashion, everyone will have to reevaluate their commitment to second sources whose products have been obsoleted.
5. Uncertainty about the effective life of DUV technology (such as IBM's x-ray fab).
There is very little uncertainty about the life expectancy and advantages of DUV. There is much uncertainty about whether, EUV, X-ray, or E-beam will be the replacement technology.
techweb.cmp.com
techweb.cmp.com
Message 2847812
Questions, comments, flames?
Bob |
