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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

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To: berniel who wrote (2283)	11/19/2014 11:45:08 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 26724

Thanks. I'm looking at ways to improve "my elevator speech" to explain in simple words what I do. I don't like watching videos, but I only have 1.4MBPS dsl and get my video content over DISH to their great DVR... maybe I need to adapt to a younger audience who wants stuff on a silver platter in easy to understand bites... A BIG problem with getting successful investment strategies to the masses is the overall concept is very complex. If I didn't spend so much time writing my newsletter to review all I think is important, I'm not sure I'd have stuck through the last two bear markets that were over 50% with funds to buy at or near the lows. I often think of retiring and living on the portfolio but I'm not at all sure I'd have the confidence to stick with it if I didn't have the deadline pressure to actually keep current on the work required. One of my windsurfing friends was a trader for a large, successful firm. After I semi retired in 1998 to do self-funded internet stuff and write a newsletter as part of what I'd offer, he retired in 1999 or 2000. He took a lot of profits but also sold his Palo Alto house for about $1M. Several others tried to get me to sell my similar home. I didn't as I believed the startup success stories will always want to live here which should support housing. Needless to say, I think it will cost about $2.4M to buy back his home now and he told me he's looking to buy a home again as rents are soaring now... I think most people, if they can read a chart in the first place, only see linear charts and they lack comprehension of compounding. Those of us that can read a graph and not only understand compounding but can think in log scale, crush the returns of the others. For example, how often do you see charts like this in the press or even here on SI? Maybe the "wizzards" will sense this chart and say things like "to the moon" but it is like the Wizzard of Oz... the longer the market hugs that dotted line, the more exciting the break will be. Hmmm.... maybe I'll calculate CAGR for the centroid in the next newsletter and relate it to GDP and inflation. BTW, Jack Bogle sees it...

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