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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 191.04-2.5%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST
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To: Kirk © who wrote (2679)1/30/2015 11:03:18 AM
From: robert b furman2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Kirk ©
mary-ally-smith

   of 27069
 
Agreed,

The oils remind me of what happened to the semis in 2001.

They were raking in the margins and had changed the world.

While shale was making us the largest oil producer in the world, as OPEC was propping up oil, at a false price of over $100.00 per barrel.

The tool makers of the oil patch here in Houston could not find enough workers,in the tool factories or out in the field.

Oil supplies were bigger than ever in the history of records, and it all was never going to drop.

Then the coalition in the middle east started bombing Syria and oil did not go up - huh??

That in hind sight, was just such a great clue of what was to come !

Now if this crude price stays low for a while or say a year - we'll see these service companies trade at or near cash per share.

Its another case of huge margins (which every body in the oil biz keeps very close to the chest) which stuffed the supply channel with record inventory levels.

Now for the collapse and recovery.

I do believe demand will expand ans supply will wane - remember al the dark fiber that would never be lit ever again - wrong.

Today more IC are being produced year after year all at lower prices - which I don't think will happen to oil.

The total recovery will be much quicker in oil than it was semis since 2001.

That is a complete turn of the worm.

I can remember in the late 90's, one of the most endearing qualities of the semi sector is it peaked and bottomed so fast - if you missed a top one year two years later you were back in business.

oil was a long term cycle back then.

Here's to hoping the worm has turned.

By the way did you get your chain maille mittens from Ebay or Amazon.LOL

Bob
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