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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

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Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Kirk © who wrote (3309)	8/12/2015 11:42:37 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 26631

Sounds like they are creating quite a stir with their 3D X point memory lead. This should be very good for future Book to Bill announcements. If you get a chance to listen to Brooks webcast for the recent quarter - they sounded very confident that they had performed the R&D necessary for 10 nm. The CEO Schwartz said we have the best robots that can perform in the new temperatures and gas environments that are necessary to have high yields in the 10 nm node. The CFO indicated that R&D has peaked and would be reduced in future quarters. I have always felt that Intc relies heavily on their semi equip makers to stay ahead of the curve. This often requires a large R&D budget. It also puts those vendors who meet the stringent specifications in line to be able to sell more equipment down the road so to speak to the fabs that have the ability to keep up with Intc. That number of players has been reduced ie AMD and freescale (old motorola). None the less - smart phone demand and evolution along with PC 's,graphics chips, and application processors and server processors keeps the Taiwanese fabs scrambling to keep up with the lead Intc consistently maintains. Enter the world of leadership in the 78.5 billion annual revenue market that memory represents and there is suddenly an urgency to stay up with Intc in many more ways. If intc builds a lead in memory and processors - no one will be able to match the chip foot print they will have ammassed (on a very large global basis). The leaders have survived and pretty much carved out their niches. If physical die shrinks have met their potential cost savings limit - then innovation and 3D vs planar will always push the envelope. If not. those who survive will have a very lucrative consumables business into the future. Consumables is a wonderful high margin business. Look at Rudolph technologies and Cascade Microsystems current webcasts - they both did very well. Bob

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