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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 151.68+8.7%3:59 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (3361)8/31/2015 2:30:51 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation

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Gottfried

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The volatility indexes are refusing to fall:

I use the VIX, VXO and VXN (Fear Indices) because they can help to refine decision making on tops and bottoms upon reverses from upper or lower Bollinger Bands especially when the index stretches more than 10% above or below its 10 day simple moving average. When a volatility index stretches more than 10% above or below its 10 day sma it will generally reverse direction as will the market in general in the opposite direction.







Historically it is likely that the market sees at least a retest of the lows last Monday. In fact since we have not seen an 90% upside day or two 80% upside days since that brief bit of capitulation I think lower lows are definitely probable.

Commodity prices have been falling for years due to a worldwide slowdown. Our stock market remains in a bubble as there are literally no other worthwhile investment choices for investors to put their money. The stock market is way out of step with commodities:



I have some very affluent friends but when I talk to them about their investments (which are generally handled for them by an investment professionals) their eyes simply glaze over. This has been happening without end to me since the 2009 bottom.

They are fully invested but don't want to talk about their investments at all. If they do it's only to brag about how much their accounts have made... no real fear about potential losses... since that 2009 bottom.

After the rout last Monday you would expect some fear (it's there in the VIX) but really most people think they already missed the greatest buying opportunity since 2011.

Maybe they are right.

Maybe not...

RtS

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