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Strategies & Market Trends : STOCKS WITH ATTITUDE TEAM - FA/TA AND EVERYTHING ELSE
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To: Sergio H who wrote (826)12/26/1997 4:23:00 PM
From: Elliot Lepler  Read Replies (1) of 2377
 
Sergio,

Good luck with your investment in Air Methods this am. I have some information on the two issues you raise.

I understand that the company is in the final evaluation stages for a PR/IR firm. They may have already made the selection and may be waiting to let people know until after the first of the new year.

You should understand that they had a bad experience with a previous firm they dealt with. My perception is that there was a feeling that Air Methods got little value for its money. Also remember that previous management hyped the stock in 1993-4 and the current BOD and CEO are very careful to be very conservative in what they say and do with respect to the Street.

IMHO part of the reason that the Brous analyst lowered her numbers last week has to do with the naive way that the company allowed her to put out original numbers that were too aggressive.

As for the Boeing/Canada potential, I understand that the company expects some sort of answer soon, now within the next month or so. I personally do not have any feel whether that arrangement will bear fruit so I do not mentally attach much importance to it.

The Sikorsky/U.S. Armed forces contract is another matter. The medical interior should be certified this spring and then I expect the company to receive orders of up to 20 units per year persuant to the government's plans. Each unit means about a penny a share to the bottom line, so we are talking about that contract alone adding maybe 10 cents to the 1998 numbers and 20 cents annually thereafter.

I also understand that other customers have been waiting for the certification to place their orders. But all that is speculative.

There is an order for 4 helicopter interiors for the Air National Guard which the company originally expected in q4 of '97 and now should come in early '98.

I have hesitated making anything of the above potentials since they are not absolutely certain and may be subject to delay and since without them, the base case of nearly half a dollar per share is so compelling.

I have posted on a number of occasions that I have been accumulating a large position for several years and do not intent to sell until double digits.

Have a healthy and prosperous 1998.

Elliot
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