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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 170.45-2.6%3:59 PM EST
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To: robert b furman who wrote (3833)2/15/2016 1:15:56 PM
From: Kirk ©1 Recommendation   of 26782
 
Check anyone who claims to be an expert at ew and ask them for a documented record of a model portfolio based on their calls. You KNOW if they were as good as claimed that they'd have a published record just as Buffett and GE have records for their stock performance for the various things (industries) they buy and sell using cash they generate from their trading and companies via dividends. I try to emulate them in how I disclose my record.... but few others do.

Anyway, if it works for you, great!
Rotation is the essence of a continuing bull market.


The Bull has been dead for awhile. Low rates have held up the dividend payers otherwise we'd see the major indexes in a bear just like the Russell, Bio, etc.

I've written about it in my newsletter but we've been in a "stealth bear market"

Those end when they shoot the generals.... I think we're in that phase now. We COULD be making bottoms now very similar to those made in 2002/3 and 2008/9. MANY of the stocks I follow were much cheaper when I added to them last year than they were during this year's decline.... almost exactly how the last two major bottoms formed.

Again... I think the odds of this are higher than a coin flip but not enough to gamble changing my asset allocation all that much. Then again, the market seldom gives you that opportunity.
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