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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 198.51+0.4%3:59 PM EST

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berniel
To: Return to Sender who wrote (3987)4/8/2016 10:18:57 AM
From: Kirk ©1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 26763
 
Maybe you should read the comments and the article again carefully.... or I could try to be even more clear despite already being so long it reads like a legal document for a new drug....
The key to get from my articles is I use spikes in negative sentiment to add significantly to positions, then I take profits as the markets recover.
I believe it would be pure folly to use sentiment, or any indicator, to go all in or all out.
”....there are confident ones; they move from ninety-ten (90:10) in stocks-bonds to five-ninety-five (5:95) in stocks-bonds. That implies a degree of self-confidence bordering on hubris and self-deception. Over the decades, when both groups...have equal limited (!) ability to "time," the cautious chaps who alternate between sixty-five-thirty-five in stocks-bonds (65:35) and sixty-forty (60:40) are likely to end up with a superior risk-corrected total return score.”
[Paul Samuelson, "Journal of Portfolio Management," Fall 1994]
In my Newsletter’s Explore Portfolio, I currently use about two thirds in stocks with a ~5% variation based on seven different indicators listed on page 9 that include investor sentiment as one of the seven.
From April 7 article: Newest Sentiment Indicator Very Bullish For SPY Even After The 14% Gain
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