Carole, yesterday you mentioned a stock that DC was touting. I just received the following e-mail regarding DC and his operation. Though that I'd share it:
Hi. Dave Cook asked me to help him catch up on responses from many people for information about the DC Express Stock Newsletter. Most have asked for information on how we pick the stocks, or an update on one of the picks, and a copy of a recent email notice, so I am providing some background for you, along with the November monthly update. This should give you a good idea of the effort and detail that goes into the stock research for Dave's picks.
The DC Express Newsletter was created by David Cook as a means for making the stock research he did for his own portfolio available to others who had an interest in small and micro cap stock investing. Dave's experience with investing began as a cadet at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, and has continued since his graduation and commissioning as an Army officer in 1984. Dave earned an MBA from The Ohio State University in 1994 where he majored in finance. In January 1995, he started the DC Express Portfolio - using real money, not a simulation - with just under $19,000. In less than three years, using margin and taking calculated risks, he has managed the portfolio to a value of over $1.37 million.
Jeff Tensfeldt began working as an associate with Dave in 1997. He is a 1977 West Point graduate, and has earned advanced degrees, including an MBA, from the University of Arizona and the Florida Institute of Technology. Jeff started stock investing in 1994 and manages a personal portfolio of $.5 million. Together they uncover the nuggets and electronically provide the investment research information quickly to newsletter subscribers. *************************************** Last year, the DC Express recommended 22 stocks. We closed last year up over 300% after a 500% plus gain the previous year. Our goal is to beat the NASDAQ by 20% each year. We have obviously exceeded that goal. We do not want to raise your expectations too high as some individuals see the 300% and 500% gains and assume that this performance will continue each year. We started this year down about 14.8% after the first 3 months. We are now up about 102% for the year. The DC Express started January 1, 1995 with only $18,969.74. Although we approached $1.4 million in the portfolio during October 1997, we closed the month of November 1997 at $1,063,698.56 ( Before Tax ) ; $ 950,919.29 ( After Tax ). The results shown here are actual results achieved after margin interest and commissions are deducted.
Based upon a unique rational analysis approach that combines several fundamental and technical parameters, our objective is to help you maximize return, minimize risk and preserve capital.
Stock Picking Methodology: Unlike many other newsletters, the DC Express will recommend only a handful of stocks each year that have been thoroughly evaluated. Each week, our subscribers will receive a detailed report or an updated report on one or more stocks that meet our proprietary criteria in the following areas: Technical Analysis Criteria - We look for a positive technical formation. We like to see stocks that have a strong base and are ripe for a good rise. We also run stocks through various daily and weekly indicators: Accumulation / Distribution Rating Chaikin Oscillator Commodity Channel Index Directional Movement Moving Average Convergence / Divergence Indicator On Balance Volume Stochastic Oscillator Williams' Accum/Distribution Indicator Price and Volume Trend Momentum Indicator Daily - Weekly - Monthly Chart Pattern Analysis Support and Resistance Levels
Fundamental Analysis Criteria - We review stocks that meet our technical screen criteria to ensure that they are not overvalued when compared to various industry price ratios: Price Ratio Analysis Financial Ratio Analysis Profitability Analysis Insider Transaction Analysis Revenue Growth and Earnings Momentum
We also analyze Vicker's insider reports and Mooreland's Insider Trader for company management trading , and the volume and type of institutional buying. We review earnings and revenue momentum expected from various analysts, and call the companies regularly to keep up with management activities that might affect earnings and the stock price.
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What You Get As A Subscriber - The $300 subscription to the DC Express provides you with: - A standard weekly alert/report delivered to you via e-mail the day prior to the week's first trading day. - One or more biweekly alerts that will either highlight stocks which are breaking out of a consolidation formation on heavy volume or provide late breaking news on stocks that have been previously recommended. - Each month, we will provide you with a review of previous recommendations. Our objective is not only to recommend stocks that are undervalued based upon our indicators, but to also let you know when they are fully valued and need to be sold. - With a subscription to the DC Express, you will have the advantage of our access to some of the top newsletters in the country, and our detailed follow-through analysis of several handpicked companies to invest in. Our intent is to make you money by providing you with useful information that will achieve our targeted goal of beating the NASDAQ Composite Index by at least 20% per year. - Based on the fundamental and technical information provided in the DC Express Newsletter, you will be able to make your stock trades with confidence. Use our proven research as a source to make your investments grow! ************************************** Here is an example of a monthly update report to our subscribers. ************************************** Monthly Review of the DC Express Portfolio Month of NOVEMBER 97
RESULTS TO DATE: 1 January 1995 - $ 18,969.74 1 January 1996 - $ 116,506.85 1 January 1997 - $ 469,622.29 1 December 1997 - $1,063,698.56 ( Before Tax ) $ 950,919.29 ( After Tax )
* Tax Payments of $112,779.27
UP 102.5 % This Year
* Includes gains after commission and margin interest. The DC Express does use margin.
COST: $300 per year SEND CHECK TO: David Cook 444 Rice Drive Huntsville, AL 35808 or Jeff Tensfeldt 129 Stoneway Trail Madison, AL 35758
The DC Express was Down 24.6% for the month of NOVEMBER. Last year, the DC Express closed the year UP 303.1%. The portfolio started the month at $1,374,124.61 and ended the month down $310,438.88 to $950,919.29. The DC Express has recommended the following stocks prior to and/or during the month of NOVEMBER:
1) BIPL - Biopool 6) INDI - Individual Investor 2) CWEI - Clayton Williams 7) MTEL - Mobile Tel 3) DIAN - Dianon Systems, Inc 8) PUMA - Puma Tech 4) GEOI - GeoResources 9) SMIN - Southern Mineral 5) HNV - Hanover Direct 10) TSSW - Touchstone Software
Positions Sold:
1) SWSH- 4) MIND Rec Buy at $ 7.625 Ask Rec Buy at $ 9.875 Ask Rec Sell at $12.125 Bid Rec Sell at $ 7.000 Bid Profit of 59.02% Loss of 29.11% 2) MSON 5) GCO Rec Buy at $ 8.06 Ask Rec Buy at $11.250 Ask Rec Sell at $10.25 Bid Rec Sell at $13.875 Bid Profit of 27.17% Profit of 23.33% 3) TMSR 6) PACC Rec Buy at $ 7.40 Ask Rec Buy at $ 9.625 Ask Rec Sell at $ 7.625 Bid Rec Sell at $ 15.875 Bid Profit of 3.04% Profit of 64.94%
Summary of Positions - END OF NOVEMBER
1) BIPL - The DC Express recommended buying this stock when the stock traded at $2.625 ASK. *** 3 Main Reasons For Buying BIOPOOL ***
a) Significant Multiyear Breakout - The stock broke through a 6 year resistance point on heavy volume.
b) Strong Fundamentals - BIPL sells at a discount to the Industry Average using standard price ratios and has achieved superior returns compared to the Industry:
* UPDATE BELOW * Price Ratios (1) Price to Sales: C: 1.56 vs I: 10.38 Lower is Better (2) Price to Book: C: 2.40 vs I: 5.82 Lower is Better (3) Price to Cash Flow C: 12.62 vs I: 46.32 Lower is Better Less Debt (1) Debt to Equity: C: .33 vs I: .43 Lower is Better (2) LTD to Equity: C: .23 vs I: .35 Lower is Better Higher Returns (1) Return On Equity: C: 16.97 vs I: (5.99) Higher is Better (2) Return On Assets: C: 11.36 vs I: (7.11) Higher is Better (3) Profit Margin: C: 9.68 vs I: (4.52) Higher is Better
c) Great Prospects for Growth - BIPL not only has achieved FDA approval for 8 new products this year but also has completed a merger with the Blood Group Serology which should more than double revenues. Revenues: --------- 97 96 95 94 MAR: 4,103,000 versus 1,778,000 versus 1,542,000 versus 1,278,000 JUN: 4,243,000 versus 2,089,000 versus 1,776,000 versus 1,417,000 SEP: 4,315,000 versus 2,006,000 versus 1,660,000 versus 1,363,000 DEC: TBD versus 2,147,000 versus 1,684,000 versus 1,469,000
** Looking for RECORD Revenue And Earnings in the 4th qtr Current Rating - BUY
2) CWEI - The DC Express recommended buying Clayton Williams at $14.125 ASK. *** 3 Main Reasons For Buying Clayton Williams ***
a) Company sells at a Discount to the Industry even though it has significantly higher returns than the Industry:
* UPDATE BELOW * Price Ratios (1) Price to Earnings: C:12.01 I: 20.75 Lower is Better (2) Price to Sales: C: 2.00 I: 2.67 Lower is Better (3) Price to Book: C: 2.13 I: 3.53 Lower is Better (4) Price to Cash Flow: C: 3.70 I: 21.24 Lower is Better Financial Ratios (1) Debt to Equity: C: .39 I: 1.14 Lower is Better (2) LTD to Equity: C: .39 I: 1.09 Lower is Better (3) Quick Ratio: C: .63 I: .96 Higher is Better (4) Current Ratio: C: .71 I: 1.30 Higher is Better (5) Interest Coverage: C:7.00 I: 5.68 Higher is Better Returns (1) Return on Equity: C: 18.77 I: 14.40 Higher is Better (2) Return on Assets: C: 11.09 I: 5.27 Higher is Better (3) Profit Margin: C: 15.98 I: 9.32 Higher is Better
b) Insiders and the Company Continue to BUY Shares (1) 9 Buys and 2 sells this year . . Net Buying of 19,744 shares (2) Company has bought back at least 1.115 million shares and has stated that it will buy back the remaining 885,000 shares.
c) Exploration Opportunities Company continues to pursue an aggressive exploration plan.
Current Rating - BUY
3) DIAN - The DC Express recommended buying DIAN at $9.00 ASK.
*** 3 Main Reasons For Buying Dianon Systems, Inc ***
a) Company has strong Price and Financial Ratios compared with the Industry Average: Price Ratios (1) Price to Sales: C : 1.06 I: 1.81 Lower is Better (2) Price to Book: C: 2.30 I: 3.32 Lower is Better (3) Price to Cash Flow: C: 11.08 I: 31.96 Lower is Better Financial Ratios (1) Debt to Equity: C: .01 I: 1.04 Lower is Better (2) LTD to Equity: C: .00 I: 1.00 Lower is Better (3) Quick Ratio: C: 3.03 I: 1.84 Higher is Better (4) Current Ratio: C: 3.34 I: 2.32 Higher is Better (5) Interest Coverage: C:125.71 I: 6.60 Higher is Better
b) Company Buying Shares / 13D Filing: (1) On Sept 30th, the Company purchased 421,000 shares of its common stock for an aggregate consideration of approximately $2.3 million ($5.46). The Company's Board of Directors has authorized open market purchases for the Employee Stock Purchase Plan totaling 300,000 and further additional open market purchases of up to 379,000 shares. (2) A 13D filing was reported by President, CEO and Director of Field Point Capital Management Company which is principally engaged in the business of consulting and merchant banking. He bought 1,800,000 shares.
c) Favorable Technical Formation - Broke out of a 4 year base and then pulled back to its breakout point.
** Current Rating - HOLD
4) GEOI - The DC Express's recommended buying this small but profitablecompany at $2.375 ASK. *** 3 Main Reasons for Buying GEORESOURCES ***
a) Significant Multiyear Breakout - The stock broke through an 8 year resistance point ($2.00 ) on RECORD VOLUME.
b) Strong Fundamentals Financial Ratios (1) Debt to Equity: C: .27 vs I: 1.14 Lower is Better (2) LTD to Equity: C: .22 vs I: 1.09 Lower is Better (3) Quick Ratio: C: .80 vs I: .96 Higher is Better (4) Current Ratio: C: 1.05 vs I: 1.30 Higher is Better Returns (1) Return On Equity: C: 13.30 vs I: 14.40 Higher is Better (2) Return On Assets: C: 8.91 vs I: 5.27 Higher is Better (3) Profit Margin: C: 16.34 vs I: 9.32 Higher is Better
c) Increased Oil Production - GEOI has consistently increased oil production each year and continue to increase avg daily oil production: Last Qtr Avg Monthly Posting for Williston Basin Crude Oil ---------------------------------------------------------- Sweet Oil Sour Oil 07/97: $16.32 $13.17 08/97: $16.56 $13.41 09/97: $16.43 $13.28
Monthly Production ---------------------------- Oscar Fossum H1: Oscar Fossum H3: 07/97: 1080 bbls 07/97: 5868 bbls 08/97: 1080 bbls 08/97: 5229 bbls 09/97: 1080 bbls 09/97: 4619 bbls 10/97: 860 bbls 10/97: 4362 bbls Oscar Fossum H2: Ballantyne - State/Steinhaus H1 07/97: 3410 bbls 07/97: 364 bbls 08/97: 3300 bbls 08/97: 3843 bbls 09/97: 3090 bbls 09/97: 6811 bbls 10/97: 3090 bbls 10/97: 5844 bbls ** Company commented that they have recently contracted another rig. " A spokesperson for GEOI said the Company still hopes to start one more horizontal well ( .67 net ) before the end of 1997. Caza Drilling Inc.'s Rig 43 has been contracted to drill the Oscar Fossum H4 as soon as that rig can finish drilling wells that are scheduled ahead of the Oscar Fossum H4. Two companies are ahead of GEOI.
** Next qtr earnings comparison against .02. ** Current Rating -STRONG BUY
5) HNV - The DC Express recommended buying this turnaround company at $1.50 Ask. *** 3 Main Reasons For Buying Hanover Direct ***
a) Strong Insider Ownership with Recent Insider Buying: (1) Westmark Holdings - Owns 78,005,000 shares - 53.9% (2) Kruttschnit - D - Owns 7,300,000 shares - 5.0% (3) Kaul, Rakesh - OD - Owns 1,510,000 shares - 1.0% (4) Hakman, David - D - Owns 732,000 shares - .5% (5) Svoboda,Larry - VP -Owns 152,000 shares - .1% (6) Wright, Robert- D - Owns 49,000 shares (7) Hudson, Chuck - VP -Owns 38,000 shares (8) Kling, Stephen- D - Owns 38,000 shares (9) Clement, Coy - O - Owns 33,000 shares (10)Abramson, Robert-VP-Owns 30,000 shares
** Another 13D filed ( Increase in ownership past 5% )
1) Basil P. Regan now owns 7.93% ( UP From Last Month's 6.60% ). Note Recent Buying Below: Price Per Share Number of Shares Purchased 11/5/97 $1.625/$1.656 150,000 11/6/97 $1.740/$1.875 80,000 11/7/97 $1.840/$1.766 72,300 11/7/97 $1.875 25,000 11/10/97 $2.000/$1.962 85,900 11/10/97 $2.0625 25,000 11/11/97 $2.000/$2.0375 76,500 11/11/97 $2.011 25,000 11/12/97 $2.187/$2.109 88,700 11/12/97 $2.00/$2.125 48,500 11/13/97 $2.18/$2.218 50,000 11/13/97 $2.090 50,000 11/13/97 $2.167 75,000 11/14/97 $2.25/$2.265 325,000 11/14/97 $2.375 25,000 11/17/97 $2.42/$2.500 125,000 11/17/97 $2.37/$2.497 63,600 11/17/97 $2.3535 38,100 11/18/97 $2.37/$2.427 111,400 11/18/97 $2.50/$2.469 75,000 11/19/97 $2.31/$2.302 75,000 11/19/97 $2.25/$2.125 53,100 11/20/97 $2.37/$2.328 45,000 11/20/97 $2.31/$2.186 56,800 11/21/97 $2.42/$2.410 45,900 11/21/97 $2.4375 25,000 11/24/97 $2.38/$2.250 150,000 11/24/97 $2.375 75,000 11/25/97 $2.312/$2.389 74,900 11/25/97 $2.344 50,000 11/26/97 $2.315 20,800 11/28/97 $2.478/$2.375 88,200 11/28/97 $2.469 150,000
b) Positive Technical Indicators - Most of my technical indicators are Bullish.
c) New Mgt Focus has shown initial signs of turning the company around. The Company has now reported 3 back to back qtrs of lower losses. I am looking for a return to profitability in the 4th qtr.
Current Rating: BUY
6) INDI - We recommended buying one of the fastest growing personal finance and investment magazines in the country when the stock traded at $8.75 ASK.
*** 3 Main Reasons For Buying Individual Investor ***
a) Insiders and the Company are Buying Shares (1) Robert Schmidt Bought 9,000 shares ( $7.25 - $8.38 ) (2) Bruce Sokoloff Bought 10,000 shares ( $6.95 - $7.45 ) (3) Henry Clark Bought 3,000 shares ( $7.25 ) (4) Company Repurchased 250,000 shares at a price of $9.81 per share
b) Company's Core Business is Growing at a Rapid Pace: (1) Started its online web site in early May. iionline.com (2) INDI announces Initial Sponsorship agreements for its individual investor online web site: " INDI announced initial sponsorship agreements approaching $1,000,000 with Datek Online, Wit Capital and Telechart 2000 for its online agreements. . . "
c) Great Future Earnings Potential for the Company's Wisdom Tree Division. INDI receives a quarterly management fee and an annual profit participation of 20% of each of these funds' total investment gains. " The company is entitled to receive a special allocation equal to 20% of each fund's net income. If the amount of the special allocation for both the domestic and offshore fund were calculated as of November 10, 1997, the Company would have earned approximately $1.7 million and $.5 million, respectively, in additional revenues.
Current Rating - HOLD
7) MTEL - The DC Express recommended buying MTEL at $12.25 ASK
*** 3 Main Reasons For Buying Mobile Telecom ***
a) Insider Are Buying Shares (1) Strategic Investor Reports and Vickers Insider Trader note that Insiders purchased 234,000 shares during the last year. (2) Insiders now own about 17%
b) Technical Indicators are Bullish (1) Most of my technical indicators are UP (2) Stock has established momentum to the upside having moved up about 100% from its low. The previous high was in the mid 30s so it still is trading below prior year's highs.
c) New Product May Drive Sales UP (1) Analyst have been upgrading their estimates ( from a large loss to a smaller loss ) (2) Sales of its one-way wireless messaging services have been improving.
** NEWS UPDATE ** "SkyTel Selected as Exclusive Telecommunications Partner for New Beepwear Pager Watch " -- MTX Paging Products LLC, a Motorola and Timex joint venture, has named SkyTel, a subsidiary of MTEL as the exclusive service provider for its new Beepwear products at January's CES show in Las Vegas, can be configured to receive messages on a local or nationwide basis via SkyTel's nationwide network." "Beepwear, the nation's first combination pager and watch supporting nationwide word messaging, stores up to sixteen personal messages and can support up to three information services providing news, sports and entertainment headlines."
Current Rating: BUY
8) PUMA - Recommended buying PUMA at $8.06 Ask
*** 3 Main Reasons For Buying PUMA Technology ***
a) New Technology Offers Promise of Rapid Growth. On 20 November, PUMA announced an alliance with Premiere Tech, the leading provider of global personal communications services. Through PUMA's relationship with most major notebook and handheld computer manufacturers, PUMA's IntelliSync for Orchestrate will be loaded on millions of notebooks and handheld devices.
b) Turnaround Pick. Improving Fundamentals versus year ago results. Sells at a Discount to the Industry Avg Price to Sales and Price to Book. (1) Price to Sales PUMA: 5.17 versus the Industry 10.78 Target at Industry Valuation= ( 10.78 / 5.17 ) * $7.50 = $15.64 (2) Price to Book PUMA: 3.42 versus the Industry 13.87 Target at Industry Valuation= ( 13.87 / 3.42 ) * $7.50 = $30.42
c) Insider Ownership. Insiders own about 25% and 3 others own 28%.
Current Rating - BUY
8) SMIN - The DC Express recommended buying SMIN at $6.25 ASK.
*** 3 Main Reasons For Buying Southern Mineral ***
a) Past Performance - Record revenues and cash flow from operations reported in the 3rd qtr. SMIN reported net profit of $627,000 ( .09 ) per share on record quarterly revenues of $3,087,000. Cash flow from operations increased to a record $1,647,000 ( .22 per share ) compared to $270,000(.04) last year.
b) Growth through Acquisition, Exploitation and Controlled Risk Exploration Strategy is working: * News Update * SMIN announced that they have signed a definitive agreement for the merger of AMC into SMIN. The combined entities will have reserves of approximately 80 Bcfe, with operations in Texas and Oklahoma and properties primarily in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Canada and Ecuador. Under the terms of the agreement, SMIN will exchange its common shares for all AMC common shares based upon the average closing price of SMIN for a 20 day period preceding the closing of the merger. The merger is expected to be completed in 1998.
c) Insider Ownership. Insiders own about 33.1% with 18,000 shares bought in the last 26 weeks.
** Current Rating - HOLD
9) TSSW - TSSW was initially recommended at $3.06 Ask, Upgraded the stock to Buy at $1.50 and upgraded the stock to Strong Buy at $1.94.
*** 3 Main Reasons For Buying TOUCHSTONE SOFTWARE CORP
a) Turnaround Pick. Company has new products which could result in significant growth. 1) PC-Cillin 3: Anti-Virus Software Product being shipped to over 8,500 retail stores. Sales Picking Up / Initial Reviews are Very Encouraging: " PC-Cillin Anti-Virus v3.0 Grabs Top Honors From Family PC and Windows Sources; New Version's Combination of Power, Ease of Use and Affordability Recognized by Key Industry Publications. " ** PC-Cillin 3 nominated for Most Valuable Product Category Award. 2) E.Support: Has completed beta testing. We are waiting on that first announcement that the company has received its first order from one or more OEMs. 3) New Product Launch: TSSW announces New CheckIt -- The Next Generation of PC Troubleshooting Software; New CheckIt version 5 and CheckIt Professional Edition.
b) Company has lots of Cash on hand Current Assets Only: Cash and Equivalents: $1,226,078 Restricted Cash: $ 500,000 Investments: $7,861,824 Total: $9,587,902 Number of Shares: 7,811,000 $9,587,902 / 7,811,000 = $1.23 in Current Cash and Investments Only Does Not Include: Current Assets ( Not Used Above ) 1) Income Tax Refund Receivable: $ 32,790 2) Accounts Receivable Net: $387,130 3) Inventories: $187,101 4) Prepaid Expenses: $247,276 Other Assets ( Not Used Above ) 1) Investments: $3,182,720 2) Property, Net: $ 537,958 3) Other Assets: $ 30,174 Total Current Liabilities is $3,412,327
c) Improving Fundamentals Price Ratios: Price To Sales: C: 2.38 I: 10.03 Lower is Better Price To Book: C: 2.03 I: 13.03 Lower is Better Financial Ratios: Debt to Equity: C: 0.00 I: 0.14 Lower is Better LTD to Equity: C: 0.00 I: 0.11 Lower is Better Quick Ratio: C: 2.78 I: 2.56 Higher is Better Current Ratio: C: 3.06 I: 2.75 Higher is Better Sells at a Steep Discount to the Industry Avg using price to sales and price to book: (1) Price to Sales TSSW: 2.11 versus the Industry 10.78 Target At Industry Valuation= ( 10.78 / 2.11 ) * $2.44 = $12.47
(2) Price to Book TSSW: 1.80 versus the Industry 13.87 Target At Industry Valuation= ( 13.87 / 1.80 ) * $2.44 = $18.80
* Need to see a profit in the 4th qtr and beyond to start to trade near the industry average Price to Book and Price to Sales ratios.
Current Rating - STRONG BUY
Disclaimer - The information and statistics in the newsletter or updates/alerts are obtained from sources I deem reliable but are not warranted to be accurate or complete. I am not a broker, nor do I work for/with a broker. My stock and market discussions and thoughts are my own and are not guaranteed to perform. My past performance may not be indicative of future performance. Many of the stocks I discuss are risky and may not be suited for everyone's investment objectives. I may have positions, long or short in the stocks discussed and may profit from them. As with any investment, research the stocks I discuss and the market conditions carefully and consider the risks involved. The DC Express, myself or my associates are not liable for losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of the alerts.
* Another Monthly Review Of DC Express Positions *
DC ************************************* We are currently evaluating several other companies for our recommendation list as new 1998 picks. I had intended to provide the most recent update on MTEL and HNV, but decided not to due to the size of this message already. I can forward it to those who want it. Please let me know that you've received this message, and if the information I've provided is sufficient for you to decide if you want to join our subscription list. If you have questions, please let us know. Happy New Year!
Jeff Tensfeldt JTens@ibm.net |