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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 197.65+2.5%Dec 10 3:59 PM EST
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To: Kirk © who wrote (4604)1/5/2017 4:05:28 AM
From: Robohogs2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Kirk ©
the traveler

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Thanks Kirk. Sometimes I think I am going crazy. The US economy has been in decline (growth wise, not outright) since late Clinton. Real steepness of decline began under Bush and has continued with O. Yet all the EXPERTS tell us this is the new reality, the new normal, all we can get. They tell us redistribution is the key. More taxes. More government. And sure, DC economy IS great!! And they tell us GOP economic theories don't work pointing to GHB. They ignore fact O has not really improved things. And I am not sure the second depression is really Bush's fault.

The EXPERTS also skew their work to make things so. I was searching for something the other day and got a link to a guy on Forbes interviewing some dude talking about O's awesomeness and his being the best economic president. He even had stats showing Obama jobs recovery better than Reagan's, mentioning peak unemployment was lower under O and recovery in unemployment faster. This ignores several key factors:
  • Changes in calculation (most argue current system understates)
  • Higher base unemployment pre-Reagan recession
  • Later start relative to administration of Reagan recession
  • Different depths of the recessions
  • Different causes
  • Steps previous administration had already taken.

I am always amused how folks attribute things. Reality is never really clean honestly. Dems assign Obama starting deficit to Bush and GOP assign it to Obama. Reality is somewhere in between. Dems claim Obama saved the economy. The key steps, however, were taken by Bush/Bernanke/Paulson. Auto industry save started with Bush. If O had done nothing else (handing a prize to unions effectively), things would not be much different - just different owners.

Getting long, but key thought is that Dem policies have not worked. Reagan stuff did. But Dems say Reaganomics discredited. The claim for slow economy is bad recession. But bad recessions usually have FASTER rebounds. Each side makes up its own facts. This is why Trump won BTW. Smash up both sides. Try something new. Worth a shot!

Jon

PS I am a GHWB Repub/Clinton Dem so both extremes bother me. GHB and O were both very bad as was Carter. I think the experts are just too accepting of status quo. My main fear is autocracy possibility and trade war possibilities.
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