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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: Don Green who wrote (19344)6/6/2017 1:29:28 AM
From: John Pitera1 Recommendation

Recommended By
3bar

   of 33421
 
Hi Don,

John Paulson, had a a big global macro trade that he saw and was also was assisted by his excellent repoire with his GS bankers, who enabled him to cherry pick a portfolio a tranches of CDS instruments as well as to create custom pools of combination of Mortgage backed securities that really gave him an inside advantage
to creating complex derivatives that he and his relationship bankers at Goldman Sachs knew would blow up.

Obviously without the insider advantage of that unique situation JP..... John Paulson has proved to be a vulnerable as you or I or a sea of other... pretty smart market operators who learn that they are global macro investing and trading is done best by a select few such as Bruce Kovner.....

read the second interview in the first market wizards book.... Kovner, really understand global macro economic trends...... he was able to buy a massive multistory mansion on the 92nd or a few blocks north five years ago that was so large it was an embassy for a foreign government.

many thanks for posting on Paulson as he has been of interest to us since he turned 1 billion into 14 billion based on that insider arranged positioning easter egg that Goldman served him up like the proverbial fatten calf.

John

more on Kovner: and as a preamble to a discussion of Kovner i highly encourage those interested in
downloading this excellent 22 Page PDF synopsis of the 1st and possibly still the best of the Market Wizards books:

That was Larry Hite's magic stop loss level for any position, as a % of account equity as profiled in Hite's interview in the very first Market Wizard's book by Jack Schwager.

here is a great 22 page PDF of the study notes put together by a Zhipeng Yang

people.brandeis.edu


here is a post from july 1 2013 where I profile Bruce Kovner and his Caxton capital
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To: John P who wrote (14257)7/1/2013 6:07:18 PM
From: John P Read Replies (1) of 19346
I left out the ten year note yield :



And Most critically the 10 year note yield hovering right at the key 2.50% level.... so far the increase in yield has looked very Elliott wave impulse type..... The market is caught on the wrong side..... we do have a gap to fill on the daily chart and you will notice that is right where it would bonds would be sold by technical sellers as it's the 21 Day Simple Moving Average and the 26 day Exponential MA... which is used in other trading systems those to converge right where the gap would be filled .... what will really freak out the markets is if the TNX makes a new high in Yield above 2.61% prior to filling that GAP. since this is a Holiday week... we may not see much happen.... but Japan and China interest rate and currency developments as well as the weakness in the Indian currency, the Brazilian Real.. and emerging market currencies...and in Egypt we have major geopolitical uncertainty..... China, Russia and the US are in a turf war on multiple fronts and obviously the National Security Agency's Snowdon is providing friction...... Lots of developments occurring all over the globe.

(2013... 2017 and the 2.61 level is still key as it was the top in yield in mid Dec 2016, coming off the all time secular low of 1.336% on July 6th 2016.)

The Chinese Equity market has rallied but China has broken down from a major multi year triangle and the economy is imploding



The Carnage continues here as the SPX opened on it's high and then the professional money managers came in and sold at the 50 Day Simple Moving Average..... The SPX actually closed 4 points below it's 21 simple DMA..... which shows that the Systems traders are running these markets....

Look at this SPX Fibonacci Chart and the moving averages:



These are the kind of very Fast Global Markets where the real big time Global Asset Managers excel and clean up... making excellent returns...... I know several shops that have had some profit centers making out sized returns over the past 2 months..... Big Global Asset Managers like Goldman, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Blackrock..... and premier global Macro Hedge funds like Bruce Kovner's fund. Kovner was the second interview in the first market wizards book by Jack Schwager.

1) Bruce Stanley Kovner (born 1945 in Bronx, New York) is an American businessman. He is the founder and Chairman of Caxton Associates, a hedge fund that trades a global macro strategy and is considered amongst the worlds top and largest 10 hedge funds with an estimated $14 billion under management . [4] In March 2011, Kovner had an estimated net worth of around $4.5 billion. [5]
Described as secretive even by family and friends, the divorcee is perhaps one of the least known New York City billionaires outside of professional circles. His Caxton Associates, despite the large amount of assets under management, is known to be amongst the top 25 most enigmatic and secretive hedge funds globally. [6] He is a leading philanthropist and former chairman of American Enterprise Institute.

there are shops that are knocking the cover off the ball..much as John Paulson did in 2008 when he took his fund from a Billion and change up to 14 Billion by working with Goldman Sachs who let him personally handpick the most vulnerable tranches of Debt and bundle them into customized Credit Default Swaps and CDO's.....

His funds hit their high water mark 6 or 9 months ago when they got up to $34 Billion and were still accepting new assets...... that seems to be a high water mark when you run money so publicly.... The "Old Money" is very discrete and they have a very long time horizon... they make the future ... they do not react to it.

I promise you life is not bad at the Rockerfeller Rothschild Family office..... but they are best of breed...

Lets just toss in one more vantage point...



Now the looking at an 10 Year Time Horizon... on the Weekly Ten Year Treasury Note Yield shows how we will hit the Blue downtrend line at 2.75%.... if we do manage to move up towards the 2.75-2.81 % level over the next several weeks..we should expect that to stem the rise in the 10 year note yield .... because at that point we will be seeing weaker equity prices globally and a recession occuring and so inflationary expectations will cool off and the It would be an exceptional place for big Bond Players like PIMCO to look to go Long bonds on a Quarterly to 6 month positioning basis.

John Jacob Pitera


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Message 30884106

Message 30869111

Message 30485241

Kovner mention in the end of the post ... kovner commented that markets that are less watched can be easier to trade and can yield bigger profit opportunities.

Kovner mentioned in 2013 as one of a group of savvy long term market operators along with Jefferson Kirby

Message 29013490

Lets do that will 100 Billion dollars. so over the coming 12 months we (we meaning ) UBS or Citi or JPM or NY Life , ACE LTD or AON...of Wells Fargo... W FC, PNC (WFC and PNC are both at new all time highs as is ACE)... or BAC Bank of America.....Goldman, John Paulson, Bruce Kovner, John Taylor over at FX Concepts.....George Soros, Warren Buffet and Charles Munger.... Jeff Kirby over at Alleghany (Y) oh and Deutsche bank, Barclays, soc gen Allianz of Germany...they own PIMCO..

will make 3.42 billion dollars...... that sounds pretty good...... bank earnings should be great ....yippeee financials are going to clean up...


JJP
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