| | | For the most part, the US stock indexes refuse to go down. I believe the strength should be respected until we see a clear break. Each minor pullback only lasts a few days at the most and, in general, gets pushed out more sideways than down. Buy the dips are in force and do appear (more or less) right where you'd expect the buyers to get aggressive. Each time we get close to a break down, the buyers come rushing in.
Central banks are still flooding the system with liquidity and a substantial consequence from this is that money continues to pour into stocks (all over the world). As these QE measures are reduced, things will change but until they do, hard to argue strongly for the bearish stock case.
VIX/VXX continues to act "normal". After each new VXX pop up, there's a subsequent and relatively drawn out 20%-25% drop in VXX before we see another pop up. The pops are very short lived, as the BTD comes into play.
If and when we get a black swan or obvious reason for people to be more cautious with the stock market and start seeing profit taking, then I see the potential for a swift and severe move down that will catch many off guard. Mo-mo works until it doesn't. Usually, there's no bell that gets rung. With this in mind, I'm much more cautious these days but not really negative at the moment.
Here are a few comments I've posted recently for more "color":
Message 31189056
Message 31188720
Message 31188599
Message 31187189 |
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