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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

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To: Gottfried who wrote (5430)	1/10/2018 9:44:26 AM
From: Kirk ©	3 Recommendations Recommended By Gottfried mary-ally-smith The Ox Read Replies (1) of 26986

Thanks for that! One problem with a snapshot of just a year is some picks take longer to work out. My 60:40 Explore Portfolio under performed 100% in S&P500 last year but it Crushed it in 2016. Much of it was rotation and my top stock that doubled in 2016, FNSR, having a down year in 2017. Look out two years and I beat 100% in S&P500... but if you include dividends, we're about even. That table doesn't show dividends... Some time ago, Marketwatch bought out and published Hulbert's newsletter that tracked investment newsletters. I could never get Dilbert to track mine. If pushed he said I needed to get 200 of his subscribers to request it. My guess is he was pissed because I proved his friend and annual tout, Brinker, was lying about their record and Dilbert was complissent in exchange for cross promotion. Marketwatch eventually dropped Dilbert's newsletter as even with "access to the top timers" using his data to predict the future was worthless. Dilbert's last article under Marketwatch pretty much said as much. Of course if you are only going to follow the large names that "buy what is popular" and lie about their records, if they disclose them at all, the results will probably not be very good. I just heard on CNBC that Warren Buffett has returned 20% APR for his investors going back many decades. Buffett is good but that is some hyperbole as I track him and he's up single digits since I started mine in 1998... but still very, very good. Buffett is at the far right on this table. I have another table that is too wide for here that shows Buffett's portfolio is about 70 to 90% in stocks while I'm 60% in stocks... so comparing to 100% in stocks leaves out both of our portfolios might be taking less risk.

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