Is this enough to explain Micron's woes?
New IC manufacturing lines to boost total industry wafer capacity by 8%, says IC Insights
Feb 12, 14:42
IC industry wafer capacity, specifically in the memory segment, was inadequate to meet demand throughout 2017. However, new IC manufacturing lines are expected to boost industry capacity by 8% in both 2018 and 2019, according to IC Insights.
Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron Technology, Intel, Toshiba/Western Digital, and XMC/Yangtze River Storage Technology all plan to significantly ramp up 3D NAND flash capacity over the next few years, IC Insights said. Samsung and SK Hynix both will also boost their DRAM production capacities in 2018 and 2019 IC Insights forecast that from 2017-2022, annual growth in IC industry capacity will average 6% compared to 4.8% average growth from 2012-2017.
and
If all the new fab capacity expected to be brought on-line in 2019 happens as planned, the volume of capacity added that year will approach the record set in 2007, IC Insights said. More than 18 million 8-inch equivalent wafers per year of new capacity is expected to be added in 2019, and this number even assumes some of the massive DRAM and NAND fabs being built by China-based companies will not be carried out quite as aggressively as has been advertised. IC Insights believes that construction of these China-owned fabs is progressing slower than planned. Some may believe "it isn't different this time" and China, like Korea, Taiwan and Japan in past cycles, overbuilds and swamps the industry.
Since I added to Lam last week on the test of the market low, I'm hoping the demand for their gear holds up for awhile longer to get another rally to sell those shares into.
I just keep my fingers crossed that Lam hasn't made their dreaded double top to start the decline when fundamentals still APPEAR great. |
