Hi Kirk,
Aydis negative for two days and became positive.
Clx negative for only a day and is now positive
clxx pp positive after being negative for 6 days.
All that confluent with your test from above and hold it nicely for a week or so.
Enough to make even those with ice in their veins a bit nervous.
I think as we work out of this early expiration this month the spring is getting wound tight.
Earnings in April will reflect the new lower tax rates and 100% of Capex depreciation.
The semi's have almost crept up to past all time highs.
Wondering if earnings and guidance won't be so impressive that semi's are about to go up in a parabolic fashion - fueled by buy backs or boosted dividends (LRCX style).
Then there seems to be a feeding frenzy in big mergers out in the sector as well: i.e. Qcom vs Bdcm vs Intc.
Last but not least, I'm not sure many are aware of the business that represents servicing the past installed owner base for those who have survived the cycle swings from the past:
According to CFO Doug Bettinger, LRCX has three key growth drivers: 1.) growth in WFE, 2.) growth in LRCX's SAM, and growth in sales to its installed base. Helping address the latter is the Customer Support Business Group (CSBG), which provides products and services to maximize installed base equipment purchase. As the left side of Figure 4 shows, after LRCX ships a new system to a customer it has the opportunity to additionally sell that customer spares, services, upgrades, and advanced service products. The right side of Figure 4 shows that from 2003-2017, LRCX was able to grow its installed base revenue by >400%, almost three times the 150% growth in industry wafer starts.
Cohu's installed owner base of test handlers has now grown to over 11,500 and the sales and service of that owner base has equaled 40 percent plus of their total revenue for several years now.
Those who have been the most acquisitive seem to have been aware of these built in service businesses that come with the new equipment manufacturing.
It is very similar to new car franchises also have service departments body shops and parts departments. If you build all of those departments to be well trained and you owner base appreciates it - the earnings are very stable and impressive.
Should be a fun spring.
Thanks for the great charts!!
Bob |
