COMMENTARY: BLOWBACK, PITARDS, FOG, FUD - What the H3LL is really going on?
Analyst Ratings in the News
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OUTLINE & EXEC SUMMARY:
- MACROECONOMIC DISRUPTION
- REGULATORY DISCIPLINE
- HEROIC RESULTS
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Is the latest ZACKS rating really a crystal ball? Or is CANACORD really onto the latest turn-around in small caps?
IMO it depends on the forward looking term you have in mind.
ZACKS seems to have a very short-termed view and thus their SELL rating reflects what a manager should expect in the next 21 days.
CANACORD is giving a longer term outlook based on the Company outlook... plus (we hope) some of its own realistic view of the IoT and IIoT commercial TAM - including FWA/BWA for unlicensed 4.5G aka 5G high speed LTE.
I have been providing my own COMMENTARIES on this site and others for several years.
One trend has been consistent: Interference or DISRUPTION from major IT firms and Political Officers has surprised everyone who monitors the technology since 2012 when China first blasted to pieces its own 4G LTE deployment plans and became a Protectionist Island.
Since then, the trend toward DISRUPTION and Protectionist Policies has only intensified. Thus, I have written that:
"Macroeconomics are more localized in 2018 than any other time of my life. Every country has become a protectionist island starting with China's 4Q/2012 declarations of protectionism. It has trickled outward from there. Even mighty Chipzilla got burned trying its hand at technical detentes." and "Last, a thought on what macroeconomic event pushes 5G: It's sunsetting 2G and 3G nationwide country-by-country so that ALL voice is VoIP, and all M2M must migrate." Feb 14, 2018. seekingalpha.com
AND
"When USA corporation cash repatriates it leaves the foreign banks exposed to the need for greater capital incoming to support their own Regulatory requirements. Loans can be and likely are being called.
This is a Banking urgency that isn't a crisis but it is going after risk-taking business loans especially equity trading risk-takers needing to cover margin calls and support their own debt. THAT is gonna trickle through and hit the most highly leveraged economies - think China first.
Politics and Business is War." seekingalpha.com
The most influential macroeconomic sea change is described in this post:
"A macroeconomic sea-change has occurred in China and it isn't friendly to anyone - necessary, yes.
China is demanding of companies operating in its territories that they GIVE UP OWNERSHIP SHARES in their companies in a so-called "SALE" to RE-Organize in a "beneficial" manner.
In effect, China is taking shares from profit-making companies and diluting its own SOE debt with these fresh shares to support the balance sheets of thousands. China is taking shares as a new form of taxation.
^THAT^ means these new Sprint bankers are at risk of a 'TAKING' they cannot control nor predict.
So, while news reflects technology concerns, the over arching concern is financial security including banking security." Jan 16, 2018 seekingalpha.com
So, for a little company depending on technology adoption the macroeconomic sea changes can swamp the little boat.
However, this little company is a turn-around story ONLY because of those heavy-handed interventions destroying its sales and JVs, not its technology excellence. What any good turn-around story needs is a HERO.
THUS, as SEQUANS moves forward the greatest question is:
Who will be the HERO?
I propose there are two acting NOW in SEQUANS' favor:
EUTC in case # AT.40484 and
President E. Macron of France.
and there may be a third if....
China's smartest move under current terms is to 1) Loudly declare its support of the EU goal of providing 20% of the world's IC and 2) Declares its disapproval of the QCOM NXP merger as a first step supporting #1.
As USA raises protectionist barriers to PRC Chinese domestic products competing against Western brands, the outlook for other non-USA Western brands is uncertain in the USA market. EVERYONE's product is built off-shore: Taiwan, PRC China, Vietnam, et al.
Even mighty Apple and Intel end-user products are mostly built off-shore (kudos to those still made in Austin). Thus, the concern about fab Nation is not involved in the protectionist barriers story. It's purely about the Branding Nation and whether the Brand has enough influence to maintain product integrity at the off-shore fab itself. USA has seen too many of its own brands cut down by fab defects to trust off-shore fabs without rigorous inspection: think Firestone.
Now that two of China's largest ODM firms (ZTE, Huawei) have been isolated from the USA market, competition for the USA market consolidates along with potential market shares. This is a really big deal opportunity.
However, you should expect that since USA has 'smashed China's toys' (rhetorically speaking), China will retaliate and smash USA's toys too. And in this I am thinking of the JVs entered into between QCOM and INTC and various Chinese firms.
One that particularly comes to mind is between BAICELLS and INTC.
Can this JV continue now that POTUS has smashed the first two Pottery Barns?
Another is between Huawei and INTC in HPC devices.
All of this is publicly called a security retaliation but the truth is deeper and more troubling and relates to Banking and Economic Strength and National Security that results from a healthy economy. On this I have many posts on this site.(below)
So, now full-circle back to What the H3LL is really going on?
AND Is there really a turn-around prospect for SEQUANS?
Is there really a HERO?
On these questions I refer you to the developments for USA's two largest IC designers QCOM and INTC.
The answer depends on your understanding and conclusions related to the 'embargos' forced upon them by EUTC and APPLE.
ENTER THE HERO
Regulators do not work in a vacuum nor 'Ivory Towers'.
Regulators reflect the long arc of history that led to their formation. The European Union and USA arenas both reflect an Enlightenment-derived sense of Justice hardened by the Real Politik of WW2 and subsequent Cold War.
The broad sweep of lessons learned are that an anti-Monarchist movement (France, Germany, Russia) too easily leads to Anarchy and Civil War, and Monarchies are despotic in all forms. It is Law and Regulation that manages the competing extreme interests. However, Laws and Regulations can themselves be seized by Politics and Populism and monstrosities like Enabling Acts by whatever name, e.g. Patriot Acts, created to undermine good Law and Regulation. Thus Regulators are partners to Courts and carry heavy responsibility to conduct Laws of Congress and Parliament carefully and avoid fundamental injustices.
In these times Regulators are the Investigators and Defenders on the front line of defense against aggressors. They are defending their castles against 2-faced spys and thiefs intent on destroying Nations. The very Allies who claim to stand together with them have become hostile and the truth is coming clear in revelation-after-revelation: Facebook is just the latest revelation of organizational spying - a defacto MI6 or Mossad or CIA operation. Intel ME before that. CISCO before that. Soon we will hear that Cambridge Analytica was a British MoD adjunct office or operation.
As a declaration of Neutrality, several major IT firms have declared a non-offensive policy in order to position themselves as Defenders of Privacy and other Rights. But notice which firms are NOT signatory to the policy: in particular the UNNAMED DEFENDANT to AT.40484 case now before the EUTC has not signed, yet.
Our own industries' network techies have been conscripted in a War we don't officially recognize - a new age cold war. And those agents have gone rogue with their own greed and selfish ambitions knowing they have defacto impunity. Secrecy uber alles. Our own Laws have been turned against us by Chancellor Bush just as were laws under Chancellor Adolph.
We cannot defend ourselves - and this is the macroeconomic truth in which we invest and compete.
And it is the backdrop to Regulatory investigations including AT.40484 which are necessary as our own IT firms are behaving as militant terrorist agencies for their own aggrandizement.
On this basis there is a Best Case developing and it is already published; in part. And it benefits both the need to shut down State terrorists and rogue State conscripts, and protect our Constitution, civil law and rights, and separation of Church and State all together without a conflagration like April 19th, 1775.
That Best Case is:
1) EUTC strongly enforce its policies prohibiting Market Dominance and Bully behavior as conducted by the UNNAMED DEFENDANT against Sequans and described in Anti Trust investigation case AT.40484(see refs below) .
2) China should 1) Loudly declare its support of the EU goal of providing 20% of the world's IC and 2) Declare its final disapproval of the QCOM NXP merger as a first step supporting #1. NXP must remain European owned.
But the question for a SEQUANS investor is:
Does the Hero arrive in time to prevent dilution to zero?
As 5G is declared crippled in news today, other are simply reminding what 5G brings and what China calls 5G.
In any war, Truth is the first casualty.
What is needed is a loud declaration and this COMMENTARY ain't it.
It's odd to see USA has become the evil Chancellor but Obama allowed and enabled these current times and Trump is apparently comfortable with the status quo. Our FBI wasn't lacking intelligence in 2001, they were ignored by civilian officers.
I hope the EUTC and China's President Xi together step forward.
As for Sequans market hopes: that depends on the USA-based competition and whether Market Dominance and Bully behavior is allowed to enjoy impunity. Betting on a Hero is no way to invest wisely. And a turn-around requires a Heroic act.
Is China a Hero or a villain?
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Message 31397262
EU Security Gains IoT Champion: Thales buys Gemalto. Twins Transform Industry. Regulators Gain Partner in Battle for Internet Space Security...
We live in an era in which the largest CPU provider in the world and the largest Software OS provider in the world, both American and therefore allies to EU, BOTH have been discovered building into their products backdoors that permit the largest theft of... geeez...
everything on a computer and everything that data represents: property, freedom, wealth, power, The Truths We Hold Self-Evident.
It is no longer enough for Excuses and Remediation Plans to satisfy partners and allies that those two giants can and will look to your (our) best interests. Either the process to design safe and secure solutions is too difficult, or the intention is conflicted.
Trust is Shattered.
Combine that with allegations and proof of server hacking of both Public and Government computers here and abroad and you have a Crisis forcing a new Paradigm...
I have written on this forum in the past regarding our own corporate Security assets acting 'Rogue' using tools developed for Governments as their own selfish spycraft weapons. And I have expressed concern these actions have been given tacit approval or impunity under secret Patriot Act and related Laws and Regulations in the USA...
EU States are looking to EU solutions for their Security because foreign solutions do not provide for the necessary VERIFIABLE TRUST. USA solutions will diminish as a result in that market. Alternatives will gain market share.
This is a macroeconomic sea change. This changes 2018 outlooks in dozens of companies.
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Message 31515812
And, just for fun, I'll add this news from ARRIS the ODM product developer known for set top boxes and more... it is useful to know what is in the mind of Brand Leaders; and for a leader of unlicensed spectrum routers to describe the need for greater capability is suggestive of more than his own company's needs.
Sooo.... do they need more capability in their Ruckus boxes? Do they buy a more complex SoC or just add the additional network-certified LTE-tech chip from SEQUANS to what they already have inside?
lightreading.com
Arris Not Ruling Out More M&A MARI SILBEY, Senior Editor, Cable/Video 3/6/2018... Arris is expanding into new technology fields and vertical sectors, continuing the M&A hunt as it did most recently with the acquisition of Ruckus...
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Message 31495525
Recall our general disappointment with the new VZW SmartHub using Sequans for LTE-A when it included WiFi, Bluetooth and Z-Wave/NEST but not CBRS.
I posted the question about a software upgrade unlocking the 3.5Ghz band since the Sequans chip is already certified on 3.5Ghz - all it needed was the hardware antenna capability or an external port to plug in the needed antenna as so many other modems and routers also have external antenna ports.
Lightreading.com
Ruckus Revels in IoT & CBRS at MWC MARI SILBEY, Senior Editor, Cable/Video 2/21/2018 This is a big year for Ruckus at Mobile World Congress. Not only is it the first time the subsidiary company is appearing at the show since being acquired by Arris, but Ruckus is also making major product announcements in two important emerging areas of wireless technology: industrial IoT and Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS)... The company's new solution set includes IoT modules that can be attached to select Ruckus WiFi access points... Ruckus's IoT strategy is similar to what drives IoT hub use cases in a smart home... Supporting the 3.5GHz CBRS band, these access points are paired with Ruckus cloud services and designed to make deploying LTE more like implementing a WiFi network ..
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Message 31549222
Ruckus/ARRIS adding 3.5 GHz CBRS via "plug-on modules for its existing Wi-Fi access points"...
fiercewireless.com
Arris/Ruckus lays out CBRS opportunity: $1B by 2022 by Mike Dano | Mar 28, 2018 Arris said its Ruckus business... Arris officials have said that the combination of LTE and Wi-Fi technology essentially creates a “5G experience” ... Arris’ Ruckus business plans to sell access points that can support LTE and Wi-Fi... Ruckus is planning to offer plug-on modules for its existing Wi-Fi access points that will add LTE 3.5 GHz CBRS capabilities to the devices. “It allows Wi-Fi access points to be upgraded,” he said.
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Message 31376946
fiercewireless.com
Charter, Federated tout CBRS momentum, but T-Mobile worries over 5G suitability by Mike Dano | Nov 30, 2017 ... Federated Wireless to date has conducted fully 30 CBRS trials, and counts 20 different vendors that have built products that work with its SAS database. He added that there are hundreds of different devices that have connected into Federated’s SAS system.
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Message 31376903
AT&T Launches The LTE-M Button device with AWS "first quarter of next year" per fiercewireless.com
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Message 31439629
Assessing BUY or SELL this Small Cap Stock. My July post deserves a re-read Here's the LINK...
under today's macroeconomics a multi-national financial deal with Allied Leadership is more likely. I'm thinking of CetDF or other French Financial group as Lead such as ATOS, or Taiwan DRC China, with PRC banks included and no PRC SOE involvement.
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Message 31391600
COMMENT: REPEALING NET NEUTRALITY GAINS AN EDGE... So, what's really happening? Is it really about access to the net?
H3LL NO!
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Message 31297668
10/9/2017
MUST READ on Reuters now: Apple CEO in France. Comment regarding Implications... EUTC has the authority to both fine and embargo companies that cause offense within the EUTC jurisdiction... Stay tuned to this story
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Message 31328061
10/31/2017
COMMENTARY on Apple Modem news: i-devices redesigned due to embargo threat by EUTC and product availability concerns...
I remind you that the EUTC complaint known as AT.40484 includes a request for embargo, at the discretion of the Commissioners, to enforce their judgment.
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Message 31295177
Hello: Comments on SQNS Revenue and Lawsuit and EUTC Case... These are dark days for the company as customers are not only deciding which M2M product performs for their needs, they are also deciding the ultimate winners in the tech sector because order consolidation around any chip and module producer creates a de facto leader due to scale achievement. This is a horse race to SCALE.
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Message 31168469
4G LTE-PRO Era mergers: Can Sequans pull off a M&A similar to Alcatel & Huaxin of PRC?... Sequans today is at a similar stage of risk. They have never been closer to bankruptcy as execution in their declared business sector has entirely failed to execute... The opportunity of a mutually beneficial JV or merger has never been more ripe... Sequans has never been in a position to see its own ending so clearly.
But is that end its death or its re-birth? |
