Of some interest if you haven't already seen it:
biz.yahoo.com
Again, my take on these things is that bumpiness usually develops
a few months to half a year afer IMF plans kicks in, and there's
another big dip. (Results of IMF austerity are worse than
expected, and/or some countries don't quite adhere to the plans...)
BWDIK.
I like Phillippines better than Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia
because the country is more democratic. That may be good from
an investment point of view... on the other hand, if the ability to ram
austerity down its citizens throats without effective opposition
is a major criterion of investment-worthiness now, Indonesia
may be a better bet. I avoided Indonesia previously because it is
fairly corrupt and dictatorial and the economic cronyism resembles
the Phillippines under Marcos... at that point, the "moral" and
economic arguments against investing coincided, now they may not.
Serious economic trouble may see Indonesia forced to liberalize
politically, however... opposition is already bolder. Until then,
I won't invest.
With the Phillippines, I think the crisis is to a large extent
(not wholly) imported (devaluation became necessary to maintain
competitiveness), and the big question is: is the Phillippines less
far along in the process than the other Asian countries, and
therefore more unpleasantness may yet surface? Also, it can be
difficult to implement IMF goals in a democracy, and failure to
do so is perceived badly by the international markets.
Howard
Incidentally, ya gotta love some of the names of firms whose
analysts were quoted in the article I linked above...
"Old Mutual Asset Managers" (based, where else, in London), and
"General Accident". (unfortunately this is doubtless an insurance
company rather than a money management co.) |
