Let's take a look at the 30 min SP chart from the 2603 low.
There is clearly an impulse hiding in there. One possible top is 2736. What followed could be an expanded triangle, where today's top was wave B. In this case, we are having a C down correction, and the rally will resume.
OTOH, the "real" top of the rally from 2603 may have been today's top. In this case, it is possible that today's decline was all or part of a correction, and eventually the rally will resume.
It is also possible that the entire rally was a C of a bearish correction... and we're about to enter a severe decline, as per PS. Entirely possible.
Which one is it? I think, if the "rally resumes", as I said above, the outlook for the larger picture may be bullish.
OTOH, of the markets break down and start making new lows - we may be, in fact, in a larger bear process.
I'm aware that this may be a little too large scale for people watching tiny moves. But for those who want to stick to the larger picture, it may end up being good guidance.
Disclaimer - I'm in Budapest, it's after 8 pm, I had a couple (or was it 3) big strong local beers, and if you're going to take my word for this, in an important kind of a way, you're out of your mind... g/ng |
