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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace
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To: scoot1212 who wrote (31420)11/4/2018 9:42:08 AM
From: Trader77  Read Replies (1) of 41400
 
Can you give me the summary or bullet point version of the reasoning behind why this will be the mother of all bear markets? Is it rising interest rates, over extended valuations and lack of accommodating Fed policy? Is there something more specific/systematic?

I read Hussman 6-7 years back but stopped when it was clear his models and thinking weren't reflective of economic reality. He was making the bear case then, completing missing the huge bull market run years of 2013 and 2017.

The volatility indices, what I consider to be the best forward looking indicators we have (and like everything else they have their limited utility), have all shown signs of a volatility mean reversion. Note the collapse of the VVIX when the VIX had a minor spike to retest its short term highs. Also the banking sector seemed to hold its line in the sand support rather than break into the systematic crash zone. To me that's a sign this is just another stochastic drawdown (like we had in '10, '11, '15, '16 and arguably the start of '09) and not a systematic 2008 drop.

So I'm curious what the talking points are as to why we're in the mother of all crashes. It very well could be (I can't see the future) but at the moment I can't see the case for what you and others are forecasting. Thanks in advance.
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