Kirk's Market Thoughts Message Board

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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

COHR 175.60

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Dec 18 3:59 PM EST

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berniel

isopatch

To: robert b furman who wrote (6391)	12/8/2018 9:37:01 PM
From: Kirk ©	2 Recommendations of 26788

Don't make the mistake of using YTD gains... what matters more is how far off the tops as that is the pain people feel that look at monthly statements and/or buy at the tops. I showed those at the bottom of the table. Those are closing values which is old school. I think intraday charts mean even more but are too hard to update easily. The young were buying bitcoin. I tried to explain to a 30 yr old relative how I thought SPY was a lot safer and better investment than Bitcoin last Christmas... when bitcoin was around $20,000. He was investing part of every paycheck in it. I asked if he was still dollar cost averaging in it now at what, 75% off and he didn't really feel like talking about it. So I let it go after saying I still can't say if it is worth $2 or $20,000 based on any fundamentals so I still haven't bought any and may never. Anyway, I think bit coin for this "stealth bear market" is the internet bubble that the generation before was paying huge premiums to companies that got revenue by selling ads to each other... musical chairs while burning IPO cash. This time bitcoin burns CPU and electricity. The perma bulls will keep calling bottoms all the way down just as they did in 2000 and 2007 bear markets and will eventually be right... just as some of the perma bears are just starting to strut their stuff and say "look at me, I've been right all along. We're just getting started on this decline."

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