Good morning Kirk,
Well if this IS the recognition wave, ( my stocks have advanced very nicely except Cohu), then we should see the mid caps and small caps move in concert with the big caps advancing.
It is the personality of the third wave / recognition wave per Frost and Prechter.
That's the key I'm looking for.
With eight days of advancing indexes, and WWW in two more trading days past today - a breather can only be expected.
So watching what shows resistance and/or some stealth climbing in this light setback will tell the story to me.
Watching the SOX (which has made a 410 point run up to new highs in 3 1/2 months) is where I'm keeping my other eye.
Lrcx, Amat, Klac,Ter all have made stellar runs since 12/26/18.
That coincides nicely with your noted similarities of the 1990's.
It also makes sense. Back then everything keyed of the PC cycle. Now there is so much more driving semi's.
The big Kahuna that will drive chip making globally is the 5G. I agree that the power behind this buildout is yet to be understood.
The infrastructure is big and then the ramp of the pent up smartphones sales will be a synchronized together along with Internet of Things (which will really find a new gear with 5G), Automobile and industrial.
It is such a solid foundation, that investing in semi's relying on only the PC cycle looks like the wild wild west of yesteryear.
A break out and a retest is to be expected, but I don't see a slow down in any of the chip advances.
If anything we are early. That's really the best time to do a bit of adding on weakness. When everyone knows the world is at full bore growth, it will be time to take some profits.
SHEESH, I'm beginning to sound like you. <smile>
Bob |
