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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 177.33-10.7%3:32 PM EST
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To: Winfastorlose who wrote (7167)5/21/2019 8:30:18 AM
From: robert b furman1 Recommendation

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Hi Win,

Main stream "hype" was electric cars (including autonomous vehicles were just around the corner and going to eliminate the internal combustion engine.

Solar and wind renewables were going to shut down every coal power plant.

The Obama administration was not only killing coal but ignoring natural gas (which already had the infrastructure in place).

So the administration was throwing money at Solindra, creating credits that subsidized TESLA.

Enter fracing and the side benefit of cheap natural gas.

Cheap oil/gasoline was really the big death blow to electric plug ins.

But at the time, the government support for a new technology (that was primarily a political interest vs a financial cheaper alternative) created green superstars that were infact bigger than life.

I remember thinking the internet was ubiquitous and wireless would change the world in 2000 2001.

It did , but it took 15 more years to get cheap and effective to where it really did change the world after the economics of it all caught up with the expectation hype. .

I have no doubt that electrification of autos and autonomous vehicles will grow. But slow ahead steady is the mode. They are yet to be the cheaper alternative - that's when the implementation ramp creates great growth.

When I ran a rural dealership outside the suburbs of Houston, I got pumped on the Volt and ordered some, COULD NOT GIVE ONE AWAY at a loser!

Thank goodness, I had the suburban dealers slowly call me for dealer trades. In between I lost good money paying floor plan on what was a slow seller in my market (some 20 miles north of the suburbs).

Elon and his political contacts created an entity that was bigger than life and a cult like following jumped on his wagon wanting to catch the next Amazon or Microsoft.

If you look at the Amazon chart in 2000 of Microsoft in 2000 - it ain't pretty.

Tesla will have that fun collapse as well.

The hype preceded the real ramp up of growth and the money destruction of that "jumping the gun" will be very large and painful for those who wanted the next 10 bagger in Tesla.

I saw an interview of Jeff Bazos. He discussed how the stock of his company went from 120 to 6, all the while the benchmarks of Amazon got stronger.

Even though many saw Amzn growing and getting bigger (beyond just books) ALL of the stock holders got pummeled - unless they held huge losses for the next 15 years.

A brutal lesson on fundamentals. Making money in a general market downturn really does help support price - even a dividend does that. DGI'rs have proven it many times.

A brutal lesson on TA. When the bottom falls out, it seldom recovers quickly - it is most often a multi year (6 years is quick) period as weak holders give in to the strong holders who are accumulating a position solid enough to manipulate the price as long term holders finally lose hope and sell out all but complete losses.

It's a brutal market out there at times.

Tesla's time has come. imho

Bob
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