Jelrod, I was not discouraged by the conference call. It was somewhat perplexing that noone seems to know if the corporate market is going after sub $1,000 PCs. And, yes, the "encouragement" offered regarding expense management, the new advertising program, and benefits from win98 and nt 5.0 upgrades did not excite me.
However, I've been made aware of some significant positives:
o the server side of the business is rock solid with no apparent competitive or technological issues
o the fiber channel "threat" is mitigated ... Adaptec has introduced its products and the rate of fiber channel adoption is slower than the industry expected
o the transition to ultra SCSI seems to be proceeding well
o market SHARE increased in the retail channel from 35 to 52 percent
The biggest thing is that my perception of the viability of the SCSI franchise has improved. This is the thing I worry about on a long-term basis. The NC threat has been around for a while and I discount it.
From personal experience I keep having to add devices to my PC and I'm running out of I/O interrupts. In 1994 I added a CDRom. In 1995 I added a tape backup. In 1996 a scanner. In 1997 sound. This year a Zip drive. Next year I may add an additional (ISDN) modem, maybe a camera. I don't know how long the PC architecture will have the current interrupt limits, but as long as they're there, SCSI daisychaining will provide benefits.
Please correct me if I'm wrong but to me the analysis is:
o there's still no alternative to SCSI in the offing to manage devices
o more and more devices are going to be hooked to PCs.
Thus, SCSI will thrive. Granted, Adaptec fortunes hinge on the PC market which may slow or begin cycling.
I still don't know what my investment strategy is. I cut back my position 50% in the high 40s. I may cut back some more if there's a big bounce in the next couple weeks. I expect I will be looking for opportunities in the next couple quarters to double down. |
