| | | I stick to 120 less my age in stocks so at 60 you would be 60% stocks and 40% VERY SAFE bonds, cash, CDs, etc... With low rates, CDs make a ton of sense for that safe money.
I might market time a few percent above or below that guideline but not by much...
”....there are confident ones; they move from ninety-ten (90:10) in stocks-bonds to five-ninety-five (5:95) in stocks-bonds. That implies a degree of self-confidence bordering on hubris and self-deception. Over the decades, when both groups...have equal limited (!) ability to "time," the cautious chaps who alternate between sixty-five-thirty-five in stocks-bonds (65:35) and sixty-forty (60:40) are likely to end up with a superior risk-corrected total return score.”
[Paul Samuelson, "Journal of Portfolio Management," Fall 1994]
In my Newsletter’s Explore Portfolio following my age guideline, I currently use 58% in stocks with ~5% variation based on seven different indicators listed on page 10 that include investor sentiment.
Due to my age, I have my overall (Core plus Explore) at 58:42 (equities:fixed-income) with ~5% variation. Your mileage will vary. |
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