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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 178.34-10.2%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST
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To: robert b furman who wrote (8050)1/7/2020 11:32:32 AM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) of 26767
 
Thanks. That probably explains the huge gains in some of my larger positions today including a great 5G stock, IIVI where all my shares accumulated last year are now solidly in the green kirklindstrom.com

I remember the entire 1999 runup in semi's happened as the general market advance/decline ratios got weaker all the way till the bottom fell out. Not sure most remember that today.
That run up had two main drivers.

#1 was "everyone" replacing old PCs to move up the replacement cycle a year or three rather than risk not having an OS that was "Y2K ready." Many analysts, some calling for the shuttle launch price gains to continue, missed the growth would not continue and never took profits.... One early mentor at HP that gave me the idea to diversify.... told me he never diversified his own HP stock and still works there in his mid 70s I think.

#2 There were a TON of new internet companies that bought everyone a desk, chair and a PC to do web site design. Traffic was gridlocked here and I started taking the alternate freeway for windsurfing that was an extra 6 miles each way but faster. They sold each other advertising that they could book as revenue but never made a profits as it was like handing bricks back and forth and calling it income. They went under and there was a glut of used office furniture and PCs here and the gridlocked traffic was actually decent for a few years.

Traffic is much worse now... I'm not sure what the glut is but it might be finding workers for the gig economy who can make a fair living while the gig companies make profits rather than subsidize food and people delivery.

We have 5G now plus the gig economy and big data... I think 5G and big data are just getting started while the gig companies have some issues with valuation.

K
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