Kirk's Market Thoughts Message Board

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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

COHR 178.34

-10.2%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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isopatch

To: Kirk © who wrote (8108)	1/27/2020 7:26:54 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 26769

I've been thinking we've need a good reset for a long time. I do believe our economy is solid. I'm very leary of more highs with out a good reset -- it could be fast or it could be slow ( 9 months is slow in my mind). We probably have competed a big and strong 3 wave up - time for a four wave corrective. I also am leery of 4 waves as they can seem to go on forever! If we had a corrective into the summer, followed by a lot of election uncertainty (which we'll hear about regardless of Trump's popularity). It would fit very nicely into Gann's description of years that end in 0. 10. Ten is a bear year. A rally often runs until March and April; then a severe decline runs to November and December, when a new cycle begins and another rally starts. See 1910, 1920, 1930. Just a possibility to keep in mind. If this dip is a quicky - I'll sell into it some more ( I sold some covered calls two weeks ago). Three waves are the most likely to extend. A quick recovery would be just that imo. That fits the rally into March better. Fast and ugly today was for sure. It is a good lesson for me, that once again I need to learn how to hdge my account. Much like you I trade around a core of holdings and try to add to it. When we get a real top (as in Parabolic up). I still have a simple view. The best hedge is selling off your account into cash - that has big tax consequences - so I really do not like that approach, except after a blow off top is more than apparent. Here's to you being correct. Congrats to your timing ranking ! That is an excellent achievement - even more impressive that it is a repeat excellent ranking. Bob

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