Kirk's Market Thoughts Message Board

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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

COHR 191.04

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Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: John Koligman who wrote (8184)	2/9/2020 4:45:35 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 27068

HI John, Although Mary and I both graduated with honors from GMI/Kettering, I wouldn't go so far as to call her "MY CEO". She has don a good job of insisting on quality. imo It is as high as it has ever been from what I see of warranty costs and CSI. The diamond in the rough is Cruise - NOw valued at 18 billion - which as that article states IS A GAMBLE. I suspect that Cruise will remain a separate division of GM and to the dismay of all of the franchise dealerships, more than likely will be a direct to the customer (fleets like UBER and or very large fleets that GM does business with). After the technology has proven itself, I expect it to be worked into the few remaining passenger car models and work its way up into the many small to medium sized SUV's and CUV's. I expect to see the technology morph into different torque rating sizes like GM does with their longitude transmission designs and transaxle designs. My hunch is the smaller vehicles will have more demand for the EV designs. If you read the OEM's talk about their expectations for EV's, they say it will be in every model. But they do not say their will not be a ICE design also. I think the EV adoption rate will be much slower than the now touted and anticipated adoption rates . They'll be utilized the most in urban areas and commuters where daily range is not a limiting factor. They would make a great second lease vehicle for a soccer MOM who resides in the many master planned communities. If we are smart about how we build out our electrical generation in the US, as in making it less expensive than that of gas, it will have faster adoption rates. With all of the emphasis on renewables, I do not see that happening. The European experience does not suggest green is cheaper at all (germany's cost of electricity is now a triple of ours. The trend that I see is natural gas becoming the dominant source of electricity - that is cheaper and it actually has been reducing our CO2 footprint. That may increase the adopt rate, but the jury is still out. imo I still say like the internet adoption it will take 20 years, it will get better, and still it will be 20 to 25 percent of the market. It's really just physics that keep it from being an enabling destructive form. Thanks for the read on GM. They could well be the best automaker in the future with both drivetrain configurations. Surely a better value than TSLA which is bubblicious right now. Bob

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