Thanks Bobby & CD!! Glad I could entertain you with a few accurate predictions.
Hopefully I can get back to making more good ones than stinkers, which is how things used to be for me from 1999 to 2004. During that time I started an investment fund from scratch that would lead the world in risk adjusted returns from Jan '01 to through Dec '03, garnering a 220% 3 year return with a max drawdown of 8.9%. A brilliant, kind and gracious man I met here on SI whose last name is eerily similar to yours helped me take it to the next level, and we eventually catapulted assets under mgmt to close to $6 million before closing shop in '05.
Doing the whole post mortem on this crash move, the fulfillment of the megaphone pattern targeting 3381.55 resulted in the harsh reversal and meltdown. I gave the heads up to Bob in the the following post on Jan 16th of that pattern and warning of "some sort of tradeable reaction lower from that price level"
Message 32507253
With other key patterns having nominally higher targets yet unfulfilled, I certainly didn't expect the largest decline from a market top in history as a result of this megaphone pattern fulfillment, but wasn't entirely surprised either, as the market was in an historically overextended state.
I agree with your take Bob that we're now looking at a labored return to the highs in the indices, as those targets above 3400 spx still exist. This should give many stocks the time and opportunity to sharply rise and meet their Bull market targets, as well as allow some beaten down ones like XOM to exhibit healthy retracements after being extended to the downside. Others will begin to build on their own fresh new bear market.
A Long/Short fund's perfect environment is upon us, and I'll be sharing more gems as I come across them. Thanks for getting me interested in XOM.... it was truly the poster child for the crash of 2020. :) |
