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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 170.45-2.6%Dec 17 3:59 PM EST
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kimberley
To: Sun Tzu who wrote (9395)4/22/2020 12:42:03 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 26784
 
I agree totally on fundamentals. I don't have the training, data or time to figure out the actual numbers and percentages but I KNOW that not every business is going to just fire back up like nothing happened and that not everyone is going to have a job when the all clear is given.
Even if every business opened and everyone went back to the same job right away, some places are just not going to be the same. Theme parks, concerts, airlines, etc are not going to be anywhere near capacity for a long time. The drop in disposable income will limit spending for a while. There is going to be a hangover.
I'm sure there's teams of experts in backrooms crunching spreadsheets that probably have the ranges figured out on where we will be 6 months, a year out etc. The only problem is they won't be in any hurry to share that information because it is money.
I look at it like this. A lot of companies have a lot of debt and were already working with slim margins. Now they have to hire cleaning staff, spend more on cleaning supplies, PPE and maybe healthcare insurance. Profits just got squeezed more. Consumer spending will be down and expenses will be up. I don't have to have all the info but I know it is lower than the market says it is right now.
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