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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 175.19+2.8%9:36 AM EST
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Brian Sullivan
Lee Lichterman III
To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9396)4/22/2020 12:53:00 AM
From: Sun Tzu2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 26786
 
I think it is reasonable to expect S&P 500 decline in *revenue* of 8% this year and 3% next year. Which means that EPS will be substantially lower (I am guessing down 25% and 8%). Even without applying the multiple expansion, this means at most SPX should be at 2500 and not 2900. Give it a risk premium, and somewhere between 2000 - 2300 is where we should be.

But I don't argue with the tape. Still, I think it is more likely than not that we will revisit those levels by July.
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