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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

COHR 138.69

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1:50 PM EST

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To: benwood who wrote (9494)	4/26/2020 8:47:48 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) of 26414

That is precisely what flattening out the curve means. It never meant that fewer people would get infected. It meant that they would not all hit the hospitals at the same time and therefore (1) they would have a better chance of surviving. And (2) there would be less pressure hospitals so they could save all the other patients who were there for normal things like cancer and heart attacks. I think it will be a sequence of catch and go for at least another 9 - 18 months. During this period, the best that can be hoped for is a steady, but hopefully less than a 500 deaths per day. The immediate risk to the economy and the stock market is that as various states have relaxed their rates, the rates will begin to rise and the epicenters shift. Then in mid May the governments will be forced to extend the shutdown into end of June. At that time, you will not only have a massive blow to the economy, you will also start seeing social unrest and possibly armed resistance.

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