Part of the problem with aspirin is lowering fever, which helped the Spanish Flu thrive. Aspirin was newly invented, and there were all those aches associated with the virus. Probably still debate about that, no doubt. I actually learned that angle about ten years ago from a fiction writer since her character was in WWI and working as a nurse in France.
My wife is a pharmacist. She was getting seriously burned out when this first started steamrolling (in effect) in Seattle. We had a week vacation planned, and although our travel was canceled, she kept the time off to recover, and then went back into the frying pan.
By that time, thanks to serious efforts to flatten, things had gotten better a work. And the company had had time to erect protective equipment (plexiglass shields) and gotten guidance and protective gear and sanitizing protocols to make the entire environment safer.
People who are unable to visualize and empathize, simply have no idea how bad this would have gotten if it had run unchecked. The health care system capacity would have actually shrunk, probably dramatically for a while. Her chain already had contingency plans for shutting down pharmacies due to loss of pharmacists or store managers and clerks -- to the virus, to quarantine, to burn out, etc. It would have happened. They were already down 20 percent and my wife was working quite a bit of unpaid overtime. I'm sure hospitals were also on a knife's edge.
That's correct, by the way, fewer deaths because he system is not overrun. I think one of the main reasons for the higher death rate in Italy is that their system was overrun.
I disagree with the projection of more infections if it is leveled. I believe it is going to be far less, largely due to an experiment that succeeded -- would *most* people modify their behavior in a lasting way? There is a very promising vaccine trial ongoing right now, and I'd say (offhand) that there will is a 50-50 chance of a useful vaccine by Sept. I also predict this will not be the most effective vaccine there will ever be for this, but it will be significantly helpful. That is the pattern for new vaccines, e.g. shingles. |
