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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

COHR 185.66

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Dec 19 3:59 PM EST

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Winfastorlose

To: Kirk © who wrote (10122)	7/15/2020 11:41:51 PM
From: the longhorn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 26812

HOwdy Kirk, Here's some late evening OT speculation on the gradual demise of COVID: I've been watching the latest states with surging COVID numbers. This site now has a chart of active cases for all of the states finally. worldometers.info . Several states seem to have hit asymptotic type gradual decline...New York in particular. NY, NJ, Ct, and Ma. RI and DE are working in that direction. They all have higher rates of cases per million. NY and NJ over 20,000 or rates of over 2%. That isn't anywhere near herd immunity but consistently we are seeing evidence of natural immunity...I've seen estimates of 30%. And consistently we see evidence of a significant number of folks who've already had it and either didn't know or didn't report. (x5 to x10 those who have been identified. They just tested a bunch of baseball players the other day and this result popped up again.) So lets say 10% have had it, 30% are naturally immune, and thus you get an immune factor of 40%. The new entry in Wikipedia on herd immunity references COVID 19 and puts it in the same category as Mumps and SARS. en.wikipedia.org . Herd immunity for this category is 50 to 80%. There's some math there that shows the declining R factor as you approach that level. Once R drops below 1, the spread dies out. Of course the natural immunity factor and the "already had it" factor are going to vary by region some as is the actual R factor. R is much less in places like Montana and Alaska. I don't for one minute believe De Blasio came up with some way of stopping the spread. That guy has to rank as the biggest fool to hold a major public office anywhere in this country and maybe the world...but I digress. NYC has been in the forefront of nightly looting which is certainly a spread factor. I think what we are seeing is these states in the 15 to 25 cases per thousand are asymptotically nearing the R=1 point (the magical herd immunity threshold). If this is the case Arizona should see a sharp fall off in the next week or so and Florida not long from now. You guys and Texas are only about half way there, sorry to say. And we have even further to go. lh

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