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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 185.83+5.8%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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To: robert b furman who wrote (10811)1/9/2021 11:59:12 AM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) of 26808
 
It is hard to use words to answer what a chart shows better.
Correct me if my memory is wrong, but the big MOMO's of 1999 to 2000 peaked and teased in sideways action for 6 to 9 months as the small caps peaked on much bigger percentages.

I look at it more as counter trend rallies in a secular bear. Some of my stocks like HP in my personal portfolio didn't peak until August of 2000 if I recall correctly. They might have been making a bundle selling refills for the tiny ink packages they had in those free printers people were giving away with every new PC even after companies didn't need to buy new PCs for a few years since they all bought to get new MSFT software to avoid the Y2K bug.

My newsletter portfolio had a small, positive 2001 due in great part to the rally of LRCX with enhanced returns from trading its volatility.

As great as Lam is as a company, when the chip companies slash orders for new equipment to preserve cash after their customers cancel and often ask to return chips... their orders plummet. The good news is since 2000 Lam moved a lot of the variable cost to contractors AND they made the equipment a subscription service for supplies, software, etc... so I believe even during the 2008/9 decline they still made some money and were able to pay their dividend... they just didn't increase it for awhile.

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