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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 476.00+2.4%Jan 27 4:00 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (169943)3/27/2021 9:11:55 PM
From: sense  Read Replies (2) of 219831
 
Japanese ship with an Indian crew carrying Chinese cargo to the Netherlands...

The first story I heard was "a gust of wind" forced the ship off course... apparently true that there was a Khamsin sandstorm with winds >30 knots. Second story I heard was that the ship lost power...but that is denied by the management company and the story has been walked back. Seems it originated with an Egyptian shipping agent... who now pretends it never happened. It seems it was a different ship, behind the one that ran aground, that had a power outage, but no other issues associated with it,

Have been through a couple Egyptian sandstorms.. the "hot, dry" variety, like this, not nearly the worst of them. I find the wind and sandstorm story totally plausible, with the variable being in ">30 knots" meaning it might have been quite a bit over that... two or three times more not a crazy idea.

But, when it comes to looking for ulterior motives... I think the effort is mostly wasted. The idea of it being a "test run" doesn't really work... as all it would do is ensure development of a better capacity to deal with the same sort of problem next time... so if anyone wanted to use "shutting down the canal" as a threat... they'd be foolish to telegraph the move and at the same time help build capacity to resist it...

If it is being used that way... this event is the event that it is being used for in that way... for whatever reason.

I agree you could come up with reasons why all sorts of people might want to do this... but almost all of them would involve an improbably large element in self sacrifice...

The only one I'd think would have a reasonably plausible interest in doing it... and only benefit from it... would be Iran... leaving you to ponder how a Japanese ship and Indian crew would have been enlisted in an Iranian scheme to time this perfectly in relation to a totally random event like a sandstorm ?

Occam's razor wins the round... without it being a close shave.

The investigation will find the wind did it... probably because it did... but also because why make it harder than it has to be ? They'll throw a few rocks at the crew for things they could have done better... criticize the canal for having too much sand in it... promise to do better in the future... and move along.

Except, the salvage company is saying it might take "weeks".. ?
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