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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 164.26+6.7%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST
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To: Kirk © who wrote (11193)4/22/2021 3:30:43 PM
From: robert b furman1 Recommendation

Recommended By
isopatch

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Hi Kirk,

I have 120 acres I bought from my parents estate. I have put out to bid a thinning of the trees for the next 2 year time period.

The winning bid beat out the past thinnings winning logger who resides is the local area.We are facebook friends and keep in touch. He called and said he lost the bid, knowing he would get it at his bid. He said he did not know how the winning bidder could make money at the bid he submitted.

I talked to my independent forrester, he said the mills are not able to keep up with demand. The home DYI during the pandemic was not anticipated.In fact mills closed and or operated a slower paces.

The dropping of mortgage rates accelerated the buying up of existing home prices, and the inventory is diminished to record lows.

The demand for new housing is driving strong demand, but since the average house now costs $24,000 more in lumber, speculation houses are being closely controlled.

If you have a house, it is scary to list it, as they sell quickly and you jump into the bidding for a house nightmare.

So people are frozen with fear to sell and be forced to buy at above market prices.

It sounds like a controllable thing , but with an apparent lag.

Currently demand has outstripped supply with regards to limber. My trees will be cut and used for utility poles. Poles are the top of the food chain as far as pricing goes. That may no longer be true. Those 65 year old red and white pine trees may just become 2x4's.

I'm beginning to think we have indeed started the next commodity super cycle.

If so, I need to diversify into copper makers. Freeport McMoran comes to mind (FCX) or the commodity itself. Ride the electrification trend.

youtube.com the saw mills!

Bob
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