It seems as if the thread has turned toward the negative, so I thought I'd rehash a few of the many positives.
1. Simula has successfully transitioned from the military to the commercial marketplace (a transition most thought they would not be able to make.)
2. Simula has successfully entered the 16g seat business. Problems relating to demand FAR outstripping supply certainly cannot be blamed on management. Who would have prepared for $50+ million in business in an area where no other new company has even SURVIVED in the last 30 years?
3. SMU CREATED the side impact head/neck market. The world is following. Though the market is still far from defined, with a goal of 10% market share SMU can lose the next 15 or so deals and still be on track.
4. SMU refined military parachutes for the first time since the Korean war. This market can easily be $100 million+ in sales, and there are no "current" competitors, nor are there likely to be any after SMU completes its development of its second product, the standard bailout chute.
5. SMU dominates the military helicopter seating market with near 100% share. Good for a nice steady revenue stream with little chance of competition. Watch for V-22, Comanche, C-7, etc. to grow this segment at a nice (though not dramatic) pace.
6. SMU dominates the market for rail and mass transit seating in North America with well more than 60% share. Do you think SMU technology will eventually "trickle down" to mass transit? If so the market potential is well in excess of $100 million.
Overall, a company that has gone from less than $15 million in revenues to more than $100 million in less than 7 years impresses me. Remember, the stock was $3.50 not too long ago, and though many on the thread weren't here then, that is a gain of more than 300% in about six years. Sure things in the last year or two have been rough, but as someone once said, "forget market timing, just give me market time."
I believe 1998 is a year with excellent potential for SMU, and keeping an eye on history helps me keep today in perspective. |
