All empires crumble from within b/c of structural problems that accumulate over time. I am going to mention a couple of examples from different domains to illustrate the point.
Eastman Kodak did not die b/c the management was too stupid to see the digital revolution and switch out of film. They died b/c so much of their infrastructure and vested interest was tied into huge film apparatus that they could not get out of. For example they could not compensate their dealer network while transitioning out of film. Nor could they scale down their film production because their profitability was tied to huge machinery that just wasn't feasible for small production. There is a very good insider info on that I don't have the link to now, but you can look up.
Rome succeeded b/c it was an inclusive government that readily utilized foreign citizens and rewarded talent (Genghis khan was similar). As a conquered nation you had a choice, join the apparatus and if you are talented enough you can go far, or get enslaved. This worked while the empire was growing. However, the costs of expanding an empire grow exponentially while the benefits grow linearly. At some point the two curves intersected and Rome could no longer give its citizens the promised standard of living. That could have worked fine for the old guards who were still doing very well, but the new ones who had joined the empire in hopes of riches became disgruntled and the system crumbled. The details of which character did what to whom are rather immaterial. It would have happened one way or another.
The US is coming to a similar realization. America is at a tipping point, and many people, including many of the super rich, understand the problems (to varying degrees). But there are vested interests and structural problems that make fixing the system *very* difficult. It's not impossible, but the odds are against it. Whether it is Trump, Biden, or whoever, they are still hamstrung by the same kinds of forces that subdued Roman emperors and corporate CEOs. |
