Kirk's Market Thoughts Message Board

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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

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Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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Fiscally Conservative

To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (13332)	3/13/2022 3:08:20 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 26805

Hi FC, Agree on all points. It does seem that when crude runs, so too do other commodities. Thus the super cycles which bloom in inflation and the Fed's obligation to boost rates. Crude banged on 147 before the loose real estate money collapse everyone's real estate values. The world's collective debt, of which I only worry about the US, at best seems to be a relative story. I can not imagine an outcome. My parents always talked about their parents who lived through the recession, noting they were changed for life. A life of modest, conservative living and far more self sufficiency, as well as substantial savings. Most living generations now just rely on government assistance and bailout. I do not even have a vision, but I'm sure that interest rates will never get to Volker's imposed levels. Our government would crumble at those loads. I'm not sure savers will ever be rewarded for their savings. Doubtful with inflation running at 6.5%. The unintended consequences of the pandemic and its excessive tranches of free money, and the unintended consequences of anti fossil fuel regulation is a big coincident double whammy. My memories of inflation are once it is engrained (worked into cola labor agreements) it is very difficult to beat. Powell is a political beast, I'm not sure he's willing to be as independent as past Chairmen. Enjoyed your thoughtful and thought provoking exchange. warmest regards Bob

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