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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (4438)	6/18/2022 11:48:41 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) of 10592

I think I mentioned this before but I will repeat it again: In the financial markets, one can be right for the wrong reasons and wrong for the right reasons. When it comes to the financial markets, I have no interest in being right; all I care about is the P/L on my brokerage account and that is up so far this year. The first two months of the year was easy for me: I was long value and short SPX ( for the most part) and my portfolio was up quite a bit. Since March, it has been hard. I have been mostly market neutral, with an equal number of shorts and longs. That hasn't gotten me anywhere, especially on days when crap bounced and defensive value declined. There is no place to hide anymore, anywhere. I'm still market neutral, but have a very large cash position of 80%. I thought conditions were ripe for a bear rally to SPX 4400, but then I heard Powell's speech after raising rates 75 basis points and backed off to market neutral again. The market is not cheap enough to withstand extreme Fed Hawkishness. I think that's the bottom line regardless of any brief short term rally. I have no idea how low things will get, but I will know the bear is over from the manner of the impulsive rally. SPX 3000 looks interesting if we get down that far since I have a target of SPX 6000 after the tightening period is over. This past week I have done extremely well with some energy stock shorts and I was overweight the rally on Wednesday. I like some insurance stocks that have held up well; plus I am long FUTU again. Only thing I see encouraging for the Bull down the road is that China, the first region to go bearish is now looking bullish.

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