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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing
PICK 46.91+1.6%Nov 12 4:00 PM EST
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (4455)6/18/2022 3:40:33 PM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (1) of 10563
 
Rents continue to sky rocket and car prices, used and new, made a nice come back this past month.

This decline is all about the Fed and the Fed wants to kill the economy. That's the crux of the matter: the economy is weakening and the Fed wants to kill the economy in the spirit of attacking demand to bring inflation down.

Let's talk very short term because that is the only way you make money in bear markets:

I think the garbage like Cathy Wood's ARK and Crypto can rally strongly from current levels. Crypto is the equivalent of the Dot.coms at the beginning of the century and even the Dot.coms had 30-40% bear rallies before most of them passed away. I see no difference with Crypto.

Look at the NDX-10, the top 10 companies in the NDX and they have held up above their May 24th lows.

Lots of people have been saying that at some point the Fed has to stop raising rates given the tremendous amount of debt in the system. But if we continue to take the Fed at its word, this Market is screwed and the Bear will continue intermediate to longer term based on weakening economy fundamentals that will eventually in time kill inflation at the expense of creating a deflationary bear market that will last for months.

It is very risky, but the play here is to go long the garbage, the stuff that has gotten hit the hardest for a rally to SPX $4400. Then short the market down to $3400.

Next week is one of the most bearish weeks of the year, historically speaking. Hard to figure what that means since this last week was one of the most bullish weeks of the year, historically speaking.
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