The Art of Investing Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing

PICK 46.91

+1.6%

Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (4459)	6/18/2022 7:47:26 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) of 10563

The Powell Fed has been so off the mark, I wouldn't trust any Fed model to be accurate. NAHB and ISM are the best signals that I use to determine bottoms. ISM is trending down and isn't close to bottoming. The NAHB Home builder sentiment has been weakening and that index leads by a few quarters so ISM should remain over 50 for a bit. They need to both bottom before the market can turn up and sustain a rally. What is SPX trading at if earnings fall to $200? Around 20 times, which is not cheap. Low rates and stimulus elevated multiples to a level where they never would have traded otherwise. Isn't that the definition of a bubble? There's now no more stimulus and no one, including the Fed, has any real clue how high rates will go. The safest or conservative approach is to wait this out. Sure, the market is so oversold, a rally looks possible or even likely. Speculating on a bottom looks very risky here.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next