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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

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To: Kirk © who wrote (14114)	6/26/2022 4:51:33 PM
From: Sdgla	1 Recommendation of 26782

Roe is a distant 3rd or 4th to inflation/energy costs/supply chain to voters imo. Dems will always attempt to fan the flames of race & gender… won’t work this time imo. Biden has already announced a few times there will be another pandemic so they can steal another election. Retailers Preparing for Recessionary Drop in Spending, Many Outlets Will Not Survive… June 25, 2022 \| sundance \| 269 Comments All things considered, a remarkably honest article from CNBC outlines the likelihood for a wave of retail bankruptcies. In part the issue is driven by COVID bailout and stimulus funds that inflated the balance sheets and hid the natural contraction that was taking place in the last half of 2021 through today. However, bar far the biggest issue is a contraction in current consumer spending due to severe cost increases in housing, food, fuel and energy. As we have discussed at length, consumer spending patterns shifted radically in the last year. Despite the 2021 third and fourth quarter giving the artificial impression of strong demand, inventories were climbing and productivity in the manufacturing and services dropped dramatically. In combination these two data points both indicated a contraction in demand. The first quarter of 2022 showed a -1.5% overall GDP. The second quarter ends next week, and the government data will be released in the last week of July. I predict that Q2 data will be heavily manipulated in two ways: (1) manipulation of import data via the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles; and (2) the intentional use of a lower inflation rate than currently exists in all goods. My best guess on the fake BEA numbers is a +0.2 to +0.5% positive GDP, thereby barely avoiding the technical definition of a recession. That said, the CNBC article outlines a very bad scenario for retailers, as the consumer spending contraction hits their profit and loss statements. (more…)

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