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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing

PICK 54.42

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Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: stuffbug who wrote (5332)	8/30/2022 2:16:19 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) of 10737

As I see it, WTI spot reflects the short term supply/demand, whereas XOP is the medium term perspective and XES relects the long term picture on oil. The relative underperformance of XOP puts a dent into the oil bulls case and sever underperformance of XES relative to XOP tells you that the market doesn't believe in the long term prospects of oil. Is the market wrong? Maybe. But in such cases I'd rather buy on strength rather than guess the bottom. What I find most worrisome about oil, as I said before, is that the bullish case has been extremely well articulated. So there is no information asymmetry. To me, the oil bulls are sounding like a guy we had in my MBA class who during a case study said something like, "So do you guys agree, or should I explain it better?" [ya, this is a true story. I've never understood such people]. Anyways, I have NRGU and UCO under observation b/c there is good money to be made here. But I am beginning to wonder if I should instead consider KOLD, SCO, and NRGD.

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